Future sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from coupled high-resolution ice and climate models (iceMOD)

Future sea level rise is an important issue related to the continuing buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with the potential to raise sea level by ~70 metres if completely melted, dominate uncertainties in projected sea level change for the 21st century and beyond. This poses considerable societal and economic risks all around the world as a heavy concentration of the population lives along coastlines. Substantial progress has been made in recent years as summarised in the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC with the development of improved models and more adequate climate forcing derived from General Circulation Models. However, important uncertainties remain, and efforts to date have fallen short to properly sample the full range of scenarios and potential feedbacks, notably between ice dynamics and changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The iceMOD project intends to produce improved projections of the ice-dynamic response of the polar ice sheets using a new generation of interactively coupled high-resolution ice sheet, regional atmosphere, and regional ocean models. These will be driven by a representative range of climate models and RCP scenarios for the period between 2010 and 2300. The main aims are to better quantify the probability distribution of future sea-level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, to assess the likelihood of ice-sheet instabilities, and quantify remaining uncertainties.