Modelling the transient response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period

The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (~3.3-3 Ma) is possibly the most recent and best analogue for longterm future climate change. Global mean temperatures were between 2.5˚C and 4.8˚C higher than
during the pre-industrial period, which is in the same range as the projected long-term stabilisation
temperature of the middle of the road SSP2-4.5 scenario. Despite the similarities in climatic forcing,
sea-level is thought to have been higher by up to +25 m. In this project, the transient evolution of
the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will be investigated with a focus on their contribution to sealevel change. The approach makes use of an emulator for the HadCM3 ocean-atmosphere climate
model, and includes feedbacks between all major components of the climate system on timescales
beyond the reach of what fully coupled climate models can achieve. The climate variability will be
explained by disentangling the role of the orbital forcing, the CO2 forcing and internal feedbacks. In
addition, the effect of changes in ocean gateways on the ice sheet evolution will be explored. I
expect that the time-dependent simulations including the major ice and climate feedbacks will
provide important insights about the long-term future of the current interglacial.