Non-linearity, chaos and the prediction of crises.

The project aims at the development of a non-lineair model allowing for the exploration of the conditions under which an anarchic international system evolves from low-dimensional to high-dimensional chaos. Chaos is defined as extreme sensitivity of the system behaviour to small changes in the starting conditions of the system. In this way it will be possible to develop a deeper insight in the implications of the inherent complexity of social system. More in particular the fundamental question is whether, given this complexity, prediction is possible at all, and if so, to what extend and in which manner?