Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Drought in the Scheldt River Basin, Flanders

In this continuously changing climate, a thorough understanding of
the future is crucial. In particular, droughts are becoming more
frequent and intense. The past four years of drought in Flanders are
notable examples of this effect. Hence, to mitigate and/or adapt to
the impact, drought predictions can be useful. Furthermore, a
detailed understanding of drought is crucial for policymakers, water
managers, farmers, etc. This research will focus on analyzing and
predicting the impact of climate change on drought in the Scheldt
River basin. Meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought will
be examined using drought indices. This will be accomplished by
using multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and
(agro-)hydrological models (HMs). Finally, the socio-economic impact
of drought and nature-based solutions (NBSs) as adaptation
measures will be assessed.
The use of multiple GCMs along with several HMs can enhance our
understanding of drought and the uncertainty related to its prediction.
Furthermore, the suitability of drought indices will be evaluated for
past and future cases. Besides, the spatial and temporal trend
analysis is sought to assess drought variability. The effect of climate
change on permanent wetlands during drought periods will also be
examined using a coupled groundwater- and surface water modelling
framework. Moreover, the inclusion of NBSs in the decision-making
tool is a vital part of the proposed research.