Towards an ice-free continent? Assessing the long-term evolution and tipping behaviour of the Greenland Ice Sheet with a coupled high-resolution regional climate and ice sheet model

  • Paice, Chloë (Mandate)
  • Huybrechts, Philippe (Administrative Promotor)

Project Details


The Greenland Ice Sheet currently comprises a volume of 7.4 m sealevel equivalent and is losing mass rapidly as a result of global
warming. Due to ice sheet-climate feedbacks, (some of) its
contribution to sea-level rise may become irreversible once critical
thresholds are crossed. So far, however, the nature of its threshold
behaviour and the associated tipping points are poorly understood.
This project aims at disentangling the long-term and potential tipping
behaviour of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Its cornerstone will be the
development of a novel coupling scheme between the state-of-the-art
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and the Greenland Ice Sheet
Model (GISM) over millennial timescales. It will be the first time a
high-resolution regional climate model (MAR) is used in millenniallength simulations, allowing to represent the local ice sheet-climate
feedbacks with unprecedented accuracy.
To drive the future simulations, the project will build on existing output
from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6th Phase (CMIP6)
and the Long Run Model Intercomparison Project (LongRunMIP).
The ensuing highly detailed schematic and transient simulations will
elucidate the future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet and its
driving mechanisms. The research is anticipated to serve as a
benchmark for multi-millennial ice sheet-climate modelling and better
quantifications of the long-term commitment to sea-level rise.
Effective start/end date1/11/2131/10/23

Flemish discipline codes

  • Modelling and simulation
  • Climatology
  • Meteorology
  • Climate change
  • Glaciology


  • Greenland ice sheet modelling
  • regional climate modelling
  • sea-level change