Zooming in on climate and societal change in Central Italy, first to sixth century CE

“The Roman Empire fell victim to the Late Antique Little Ice Age.”
This idea is widely accepted among the general public and among
scholars outside history or archaeology. However, many
archaeologists and historians reject this idea as environmental
determinism and argue that it is not founded on a thorough analysis
of the possible effects of climate change on agriculture or society.
Grand narratives should be built on a solid base of empirical
evidence, which this project aims to provide by focussing on central
Italy over a period of six centuries. Concentrating the analysis solely
on climate change would inevitably distort our findings. Hence, this
project integrates changes in temperature and precipitation (based
on the latest paleoclimatic studies) with other societal and
environmental factors. Recent projects have produced a wealth of
data in the form of archaeological surveys, geological and
environmental studies, excavations and non-invasive archaeology.
These data reveal changes in the human and natural landscape at
the local level. The project is set up in such a way as to empirically
shed light on the impact of both climatic and societal factors (and
their interconnectedness) by analysing the data on settlement
dynamics and rural exploitation from many different angles. If trends
in temperature and/or precipitation explain observed shifts better
than societal factors, this will show in the empirical analysis.