A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)

Q. Glaude; B. Noel; M. Olesen; M. Van den Broeke; W. J. van de Berg; R. Mottram; N. Hansen; A. Delhasse; C. Amory; C. Kittel; H. Goelzer; X. Fettweis

doi:10.1029/2024GL111902

A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)

Q. Glaude
, B. Noel
, M. Olesen
, M. Van den Broeke
, W. J. van de Berg
, R. Mottram
, N. Hansen
, A. Delhasse
, C. Amory
, C. Kittel
, H. Goelzer
, X. Fettweis

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

20 Citations (Scopus)

71 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.

Original language	English
Article number	e2024GL111902
Pages (from-to)	1-10
Number of pages	10
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	51
Issue number	22
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111902
Publication status	Published - 28 Nov 2024

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This project (PROTECT - Projecting Sea-Level Rise: from Ice Sheets to Local Implications) has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 869304. This material reflects only the authors' view and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. Computational resources of MAR have been provided by the Consortium des \u00C9quipements de Calcul Intensif (C\u00C9CI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant number 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Additional high-performance computing and storage resources were provided by Sigma2 - the National Infrastructure for High Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway through projects NN8006\u00A0K, NN8085\u00A0K, NS5011\u00A0K, NS8006\u00A0K and NS8085\u00A0K. NH is supported by the Danish State through the National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), and by the Novo Nordisk Foundation project PRECISE (NNF23OC0081251). HG has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under projects 270061, 295046 and 324639. Finally, the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) is acknowledged for their contribution.

Funding Information:
This project (PROTECT \u2010 Projecting Sea\u2010Level Rise: from Ice Sheets to Local Implications) has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 869304. This material reflects only the authors' view and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. Computational resources of MAR have been provided by the Consortium des \u00C9quipements de Calcul Intensif (C\u00C9CI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.\u2010FNRS) under Grant number 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Additional high\u2010performance computing and storage resources were provided by Sigma2 \u2010 the National Infrastructure for High Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway through projects NN8006 K, NN8085 K, NS5011 K, NS8006 K and NS8085 K. NH is supported by the Danish State through the National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), and by the Novo Nordisk Foundation project PRECISE (NNF23OC0081251). HG has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under projects 270061, 295046 and 324639. Finally, the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) is acknowledged for their contribution.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024. The Author(s).

Keywords

Greenland
HIRHAM
ice sheet
MAR
RACMO
SMB

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Glaude, Q., Noel, B., Olesen, M., Van den Broeke, M., van de Berg, W. J., Mottram, R., Hansen, N., Delhasse, A., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Goelzer, H., & Fettweis, X. (2024). A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5). Geophysical Research Letters, 51(22), 1-10. Article e2024GL111902. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111902

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title = "A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)",

abstract = "The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.",

keywords = "Greenland, HIRHAM, ice sheet, MAR, RACMO, SMB",

author = "Q. Glaude and B. Noel and M. Olesen and \{Van den Broeke\}, M. and \{van de Berg\}, \{W. J.\} and R. Mottram and N. Hansen and A. Delhasse and C. Amory and C. Kittel and H. Goelzer and X. Fettweis",

note = "Funding Information: This project (PROTECT - Projecting Sea-Level Rise: from Ice Sheets to Local Implications) has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 869304. This material reflects only the authors' view and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. Computational resources of MAR have been provided by the Consortium des \textbackslash{}u00C9quipements de Calcul Intensif (C\textbackslash{}u00C9CI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant number 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Additional high-performance computing and storage resources were provided by Sigma2 - the National Infrastructure for High Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway through projects NN8006\textbackslash{}u00A0K, NN8085\textbackslash{}u00A0K, NS5011\textbackslash{}u00A0K, NS8006\textbackslash{}u00A0K and NS8085\textbackslash{}u00A0K. NH is supported by the Danish State through the National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), and by the Novo Nordisk Foundation project PRECISE (NNF23OC0081251). HG has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under projects 270061, 295046 and 324639. Finally, the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) is acknowledged for their contribution. Funding Information: This project (PROTECT \textbackslash{}u2010 Projecting Sea\textbackslash{}u2010Level Rise: from Ice Sheets to Local Implications) has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 869304. This material reflects only the authors' view and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. Computational resources of MAR have been provided by the Consortium des \textbackslash{}u00C9quipements de Calcul Intensif (C\textbackslash{}u00C9CI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.\textbackslash{}u2010FNRS) under Grant number 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Additional high\textbackslash{}u2010performance computing and storage resources were provided by Sigma2 \textbackslash{}u2010 the National Infrastructure for High Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway through projects NN8006 K, NN8085 K, NS5011 K, NS8006 K and NS8085 K. NH is supported by the Danish State through the National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), and by the Novo Nordisk Foundation project PRECISE (NNF23OC0081251). HG has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under projects 270061, 295046 and 324639. Finally, the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) is acknowledged for their contribution. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024. The Author(s).",

year = "2024",

month = nov,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1029/2024GL111902",

language = "English",

volume = "51",

pages = "1--10",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

publisher = "American Geophysical Union",

number = "22",

}

Glaude, Q, Noel, B, Olesen, M, Van den Broeke, M, van de Berg, WJ, Mottram, R, Hansen, N, Delhasse, A, Amory, C, Kittel, C, Goelzer, H & Fettweis, X 2024, 'A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 51, no. 22, e2024GL111902, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111902

TY - JOUR

T1 - A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)

AU - Glaude, Q.

AU - Noel, B.

AU - Olesen, M.

AU - Van den Broeke, M.

AU - van de Berg, W. J.

AU - Mottram, R.

AU - Hansen, N.

AU - Delhasse, A.

AU - Amory, C.

AU - Kittel, C.

AU - Goelzer, H.

AU - Fettweis, X.

N1 - Funding Information: This project (PROTECT - Projecting Sea-Level Rise: from Ice Sheets to Local Implications) has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 869304. This material reflects only the authors' view and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. Computational resources of MAR have been provided by the Consortium des \u00C9quipements de Calcul Intensif (C\u00C9CI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant number 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Additional high-performance computing and storage resources were provided by Sigma2 - the National Infrastructure for High Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway through projects NN8006\u00A0K, NN8085\u00A0K, NS5011\u00A0K, NS8006\u00A0K and NS8085\u00A0K. NH is supported by the Danish State through the National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), and by the Novo Nordisk Foundation project PRECISE (NNF23OC0081251). HG has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under projects 270061, 295046 and 324639. Finally, the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) is acknowledged for their contribution. Funding Information: This project (PROTECT \u2010 Projecting Sea\u2010Level Rise: from Ice Sheets to Local Implications) has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 869304. This material reflects only the authors' view and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. Computational resources of MAR have been provided by the Consortium des \u00C9quipements de Calcul Intensif (C\u00C9CI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.\u2010FNRS) under Grant number 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Additional high\u2010performance computing and storage resources were provided by Sigma2 \u2010 the National Infrastructure for High Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway through projects NN8006 K, NN8085 K, NS5011 K, NS8006 K and NS8085 K. NH is supported by the Danish State through the National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), and by the Novo Nordisk Foundation project PRECISE (NNF23OC0081251). HG has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under projects 270061, 295046 and 324639. Finally, the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) is acknowledged for their contribution. Publisher Copyright: © 2024. The Author(s).

PY - 2024/11/28

Y1 - 2024/11/28

N2 - The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.

AB - The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970–2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (−1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (−1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (−964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modeled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.

KW - Greenland

KW - HIRHAM

KW - ice sheet

KW - MAR

KW - RACMO

KW - SMB

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85210036003

U2 - 10.1029/2024GL111902

DO - 10.1029/2024GL111902

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85210036003

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 51

SP - 1

EP - 10

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 22

M1 - e2024GL111902

ER -

A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)

Abstract

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Keywords

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