Abstract
This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long-term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO2 quadrupling and TCR from CO2 ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred from observed historical energy budget changes. The differences in the EffCS estimates from historical energy budget constraints of models and observations are traced to discrepancies between modeled and observed historical surface warming patterns.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e2021GL095778 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume | 48 |
| Issue number | 24 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 28 Dec 2021 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:We thank Michael Winton, Nadir Jeevanjee and two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments. Y Dong, K. C. Armour were supported by National Science Foundation Grant AGS-1752 796 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration MAPP Program (Award NA20OAR4310391). K. C. Armour was supported by an Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship (grant number FG-2020-13, 568). C. Proistosescu was supported by National Science Foundation grant OCE-2002 385. D. S. Battisti was supported by the Tamaki Foundation. T Andrews was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra, and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 820 829 (CONSTRAIN project). Funding for P. M. Forster was provided by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant no. 820 829 (CONSTRAIN). C. J. Smith was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). H. Shiogama was supported by the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (JPMXD0717935457) and Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (21H01161) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan.
Funding Information:
We thank Michael Winton, Nadir Jeevanjee and two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments. Y Dong, K. C. Armour were supported by National Science Foundation Grant AGS\u20101752\u2009796 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration MAPP Program (Award NA20OAR4310391). K. C. Armour was supported by an Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship (grant number FG\u20102020\u201013\u2009,568). C. Proistosescu was supported by National Science Foundation grant OCE\u20102002\u2009385. D. S. Battisti was supported by the Tamaki Foundation. T Andrews was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra, and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 820\u2009829 (CONSTRAIN project). Funding for P. M. Forster was provided by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant no. 820\u2009829 (CONSTRAIN). C. J. Smith was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). H. Shiogama was supported by the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (JPMXD0717935457) and Grants\u2010in\u2010Aid for Scientific Research (21H01161) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan.
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