Climate-combined energy modelling approach for power system planning towards optimized integration of renewables under potential climate change - The Small Island Developing State perspective

Peter Donk; Sebastian Hendrik Sterl; Wim Thiery; Patrick Willems

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113526

Climate-combined energy modelling approach for power system planning towards optimized integration of renewables under potential climate change - The Small Island Developing State perspective

Peter Donk, Sebastian Hendrik Sterl, Wim Thiery, Patrick Willems

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

While high renewable electricity targets are feasible under current climatic conditions, planning the power sector from a long-term perspective requires great precaution, given the strong dependency of renewable energy potential on climate and potential future changes. Power balance optimization modelling is a powerful tool for adequate power system (contingency) planning, and informed decision making in future perspective. This is demonstrated based on a case study of Suriname, considering scenario simulations and impact assessments for the 2030–2040 time horizon, for multiple load and climate projections. The recently developed REVUB modelling approach is utilized, which facilitates hourly-to-multiannual simulations, the latter being important for inter-annual variability assessments, and key for climate impact studies. Our results show that Suriname has an optimized renewable electricity share potential ranging from 50% to 90% under the considered future scenarios based on complementary exploitation of hydro, wind and solar power resources.

Original language	English
Article number	113526
Journal	Energy Policy
Volume	177
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113526
Publication status	Published - Jun 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We acknowledge the following institutions for making available the data used in this study, i.e., the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the ERA5 wind reanalysis data (used for baseline assessments and future scenario development), the University of Suriname (AdeKUS) for their observed wind speed data (used for baseline assessments), and the N.V. Energiebedrijven Suriname (EBS) for the historical power generation and electricity demand data and the fuel costs for thermal power generation. S.S., and W.T. acknowledge research funding from the project CIREG (Climate Information for Integrated Renewable Electricity Generation), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET Co-fund action initiated by JPI Climate, funded by BMBF (Germany), FORMAS (Sweden), BELSPO (Belgium) and IFD (Denmark) with co-funding from the European Union's Horizon2020 Framework Program (Grant 690462 ).

Funding Information:
We acknowledge the following institutions for making available the data used in this study, i.e. the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the ERA5 wind reanalysis data (used for baseline assessments and future scenario development), the University of Suriname (AdeKUS) for their observed wind speed data (used for baseline assessments), and the N.V. Energiebedrijven Suriname (EBS) for the historical power generation and electricity demand data and the fuel costs for thermal power generation. S.S. and W.T. acknowledge research funding from the project CIREG (Climate Information for Integrated Renewable Electricity Generation), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET Co-fund action initiated by JPI Climate, funded by BMBF (Germany), FORMAS (Sweden), BELSPO (Belgium) and IFD (Denmark) with co-funding from the European Union's Horizon2020 Framework Program (Grant 690462).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd

Copyright:
Copyright 2023 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113526

JEPO-D-22-01461_R2_SST (1)Accepted author manuscript, 1.61 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

@article{617ed37604c84530bc40a58986bb08dc,

title = "Climate-combined energy modelling approach for power system planning towards optimized integration of renewables under potential climate change - The Small Island Developing State perspective",

abstract = "While high renewable electricity targets are feasible under current climatic conditions, planning the power sector from a long-term perspective requires great precaution, given the strong dependency of renewable energy potential on climate and potential future changes. Power balance optimization modelling is a powerful tool for adequate power system (contingency) planning, and informed decision making in future perspective. This is demonstrated based on a case study of Suriname, considering scenario simulations and impact assessments for the 2030–2040 time horizon, for multiple load and climate projections. The recently developed REVUB modelling approach is utilized, which facilitates hourly-to-multiannual simulations, the latter being important for inter-annual variability assessments, and key for climate impact studies. Our results show that Suriname has an optimized renewable electricity share potential ranging from 50% to 90% under the considered future scenarios based on complementary exploitation of hydro, wind and solar power resources.",

author = "Peter Donk and Sterl, {Sebastian Hendrik} and Wim Thiery and Patrick Willems",

note = "Funding Information: We acknowledge the following institutions for making available the data used in this study, i.e., the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the ERA5 wind reanalysis data (used for baseline assessments and future scenario development), the University of Suriname (AdeKUS) for their observed wind speed data (used for baseline assessments), and the N.V. Energiebedrijven Suriname (EBS) for the historical power generation and electricity demand data and the fuel costs for thermal power generation. S.S., and W.T. acknowledge research funding from the project CIREG (Climate Information for Integrated Renewable Electricity Generation), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET Co-fund action initiated by JPI Climate, funded by BMBF (Germany), FORMAS (Sweden), BELSPO (Belgium) and IFD (Denmark) with co-funding from the European Union's Horizon2020 Framework Program (Grant 690462 ). Funding Information: We acknowledge the following institutions for making available the data used in this study, i.e. the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the ERA5 wind reanalysis data (used for baseline assessments and future scenario development), the University of Suriname (AdeKUS) for their observed wind speed data (used for baseline assessments), and the N.V. Energiebedrijven Suriname (EBS) for the historical power generation and electricity demand data and the fuel costs for thermal power generation. S.S. and W.T. acknowledge research funding from the project CIREG (Climate Information for Integrated Renewable Electricity Generation), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET Co-fund action initiated by JPI Climate, funded by BMBF (Germany), FORMAS (Sweden), BELSPO (Belgium) and IFD (Denmark) with co-funding from the European Union's Horizon2020 Framework Program (Grant 690462). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 Elsevier Ltd Copyright: Copyright 2023 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

year = "2023",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113526",

language = "English",

volume = "177",

journal = "Energy Policy",

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publisher = "Elsevier BV",

}

Climate-combined energy modelling approach for power system planning towards optimized integration of renewables under potential climate change - The Small Island Developing State perspective. / Donk, Peter; Sterl, Sebastian Hendrik ; Thiery, Wim; Willems, Patrick.

In: Energy Policy, Vol. 177, 113526, 06.2023.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate-combined energy modelling approach for power system planning towards optimized integration of renewables under potential climate change - The Small Island Developing State perspective

AU - Donk, Peter

AU - Sterl, Sebastian Hendrik

AU - Thiery, Wim

AU - Willems, Patrick

N1 - Funding Information: We acknowledge the following institutions for making available the data used in this study, i.e., the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the ERA5 wind reanalysis data (used for baseline assessments and future scenario development), the University of Suriname (AdeKUS) for their observed wind speed data (used for baseline assessments), and the N.V. Energiebedrijven Suriname (EBS) for the historical power generation and electricity demand data and the fuel costs for thermal power generation. S.S., and W.T. acknowledge research funding from the project CIREG (Climate Information for Integrated Renewable Electricity Generation), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET Co-fund action initiated by JPI Climate, funded by BMBF (Germany), FORMAS (Sweden), BELSPO (Belgium) and IFD (Denmark) with co-funding from the European Union's Horizon2020 Framework Program (Grant 690462 ). Funding Information: We acknowledge the following institutions for making available the data used in this study, i.e. the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the ERA5 wind reanalysis data (used for baseline assessments and future scenario development), the University of Suriname (AdeKUS) for their observed wind speed data (used for baseline assessments), and the N.V. Energiebedrijven Suriname (EBS) for the historical power generation and electricity demand data and the fuel costs for thermal power generation. S.S. and W.T. acknowledge research funding from the project CIREG (Climate Information for Integrated Renewable Electricity Generation), which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET Co-fund action initiated by JPI Climate, funded by BMBF (Germany), FORMAS (Sweden), BELSPO (Belgium) and IFD (Denmark) with co-funding from the European Union's Horizon2020 Framework Program (Grant 690462). Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Elsevier Ltd Copyright: Copyright 2023 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2023/6

Y1 - 2023/6

N2 - While high renewable electricity targets are feasible under current climatic conditions, planning the power sector from a long-term perspective requires great precaution, given the strong dependency of renewable energy potential on climate and potential future changes. Power balance optimization modelling is a powerful tool for adequate power system (contingency) planning, and informed decision making in future perspective. This is demonstrated based on a case study of Suriname, considering scenario simulations and impact assessments for the 2030–2040 time horizon, for multiple load and climate projections. The recently developed REVUB modelling approach is utilized, which facilitates hourly-to-multiannual simulations, the latter being important for inter-annual variability assessments, and key for climate impact studies. Our results show that Suriname has an optimized renewable electricity share potential ranging from 50% to 90% under the considered future scenarios based on complementary exploitation of hydro, wind and solar power resources.

AB - While high renewable electricity targets are feasible under current climatic conditions, planning the power sector from a long-term perspective requires great precaution, given the strong dependency of renewable energy potential on climate and potential future changes. Power balance optimization modelling is a powerful tool for adequate power system (contingency) planning, and informed decision making in future perspective. This is demonstrated based on a case study of Suriname, considering scenario simulations and impact assessments for the 2030–2040 time horizon, for multiple load and climate projections. The recently developed REVUB modelling approach is utilized, which facilitates hourly-to-multiannual simulations, the latter being important for inter-annual variability assessments, and key for climate impact studies. Our results show that Suriname has an optimized renewable electricity share potential ranging from 50% to 90% under the considered future scenarios based on complementary exploitation of hydro, wind and solar power resources.

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U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113526

DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113526

M3 - Article

VL - 177

JO - Energy Policy

JF - Energy Policy

SN - 0301-4215

M1 - 113526

ER -

Climate-combined energy modelling approach for power system planning towards optimized integration of renewables under potential climate change - The Small Island Developing State perspective

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