Abstract
Iris pseudacorus is both a prized ornamental and an invasive aquatic plant that tends to grow dense monospecific stands, displacing the local vegetation and altering the hydrology of freshwater ecosystems. Originally from Europe, this species has historically invaded North America, China and Japan, and more recently spread through Argentina, South Africa and Australasia, where it is now a target for biological control. Field surveys within its native range have led to the selection of three candidate biocontrol agents. Prioritizing the best candidates for different regions constitutes a critical step, which could save significant time and resources before further cost-intensive experimental studies are conducted. Climate change is seldom taken into consideration in the prioritization process. In this regard, climatic suitability can be used to model the potential distributions of weeds and their candidate agents, both in space and time, thus allowing to identify areas at risk of invasion and predict where agents will be able to establish long-term. Accordingly, the objectives of this work were (i) to predict I. pseudacorus invasions and range shifts in the context of climate change; (ii) to identify wetland areas most at risk of invasion under present and future climatic conditions; and (iii) to prioritize the best suite of candidate biocontrol agents for different invaded ranges, worldwide. To do so, we modelled the present and future (2040–2060) climatic suitability of I. pseudacorus and its candidate agents using the software MaxEnt. Our results highlight a clear distinction between predictions for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In North America and eastern Asia, the area climatically suitable for I. pseudacorus is expected to increase and shift northwards. As for its biocontrol agents, very low suitability is predicted across these regions, further decreasing under future climatic conditions. On the other hand, climatically suitable areas for the plant in South America, southern Africa and Australasia are predicted, on average, to reduce in response to climate change. A decrease in climatic suitability is also expected for its candidate biocontrol agents which, however, would still maintain a significant range overlap with their host. These results can be used to prioritize areas most at risk of invasion and identify which combination of candidates could potentially provide the best level of control across different invaded ranges.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 105290 |
Number of pages | 18 |
Journal | Biological Control |
Volume | 184 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Sep 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:The PhD project of G.M. is funded by a strategic basic research fellowship of the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO SB71). We thank the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BAS 53 and BAS 42) and the Centre for Biological Control (Rhodes University) for logistic support. Iris pseudacorus biological control research in South Africa is funded through the Department of Environmental Affairs, Natural Resource Management Programmes (previously the Working for Water Programme). The South African Research Chairs Initiative of the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation of South Africa provided additional funding. Any opinion, finding, conclusion or recommendation expressed in this material is that of the authors, and the National Research Foundation does not accept any liability in this regard.
Funding Information:
The PhD project of G.M. is funded by a strategic basic research fellowship of the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO SB71). We thank the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BAS 53 and BAS 42) and the Centre for Biological Control (Rhodes University) for logistic support. Iris pseudacorus biological control research in South Africa is funded through the Department of Environmental Affairs, Natural Resource Management Programmes (previously the Working for Water Programme). The South African Research Chairs Initiative of the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation of South Africa provided additional funding. Any opinion, finding, conclusion or recommendation expressed in this material is that of the authors, and the National Research Foundation does not accept any liability in this regard.
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