Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Piers Forster; Harriet I. Forster; Mathew John Evans; Matthew J. Gidden; Chris Jones; Christoph A. Keller; Robin Lamboll; Corinne Le Quéré; Joeri Rogelj; Deborah Rosen; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Thomas B. Richardson; Christopher Smith; Steven Turnock

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0

Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Piers Forster, Harriet I. Forster, Mathew John Evans, Matthew J. Gidden, Chris Jones, Christoph A. Keller, Robin Lamboll, Corinne Le Quéré, Joeri Rogelj, Deborah Rosen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Thomas B. Richardson, Christopher Smith, Steven Turnock

Department of Water and Climate

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

426 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NO_x emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO₂ emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

Original language	English
Article number	10
Pages (from-to)	913–919
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0
Publication status	Published - Oct 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
C.L.Q. was supported by the Royal Society grant no. RP\R1\191063 and the European Commission H2020 4C grant no. 821003. M.J.E. is grateful for computational support from the University of York’s HPC service (Viking). We thank S. Forster for proofreading the paper and for useful ideas.

Funding Information:
Funding was provided by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant nos. 820829 (CONSTRAIN) and UKRI NERC grant no. NE/ N006038/1 (SMURPHS). C.D.J. was supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and CRESCENDO (EU Project 641816).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

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Forster, Piers ; Forster, Harriet I. ; Evans, Mathew John ; Gidden, Matthew J. ; Jones, Chris ; Keller, Christoph A. ; Lamboll, Robin ; Quéré, Corinne Le ; Rogelj, Joeri ; Rosen, Deborah ; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ; Richardson, Thomas B. ; Smith, Christopher ; Turnock, Steven. / Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. In: Nature Climate Change. 2020 ; Vol. 10. pp. 913–919.

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title = "Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19",

abstract = "The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.",

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note = "Funding Information: C.L.Q. was supported by the Royal Society grant no. RP\R1\191063 and the European Commission H2020 4C grant no. 821003. M.J.E. is grateful for computational support from the University of York{\textquoteright}s HPC service (Viking). We thank S. Forster for proofreading the paper and for useful ideas. Funding Information: Funding was provided by the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant nos. 820829 (CONSTRAIN) and UKRI NERC grant no. NE/ N006038/1 (SMURPHS). C.D.J. was supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and CRESCENDO (EU Project 641816). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

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doi = "10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0",

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Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. / Forster, Piers; Forster, Harriet I.; Evans, Mathew John; Gidden, Matthew J.; Jones, Chris; Keller, Christoph A.; Lamboll, Robin; Quéré, Corinne Le; Rogelj, Joeri; Rosen, Deborah; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Richardson, Thomas B.; Smith, Christopher; Turnock, Steven.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, 10, 10.2020, p. 913–919.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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AU - Evans, Mathew John

AU - Gidden, Matthew J.

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AU - Keller, Christoph A.

AU - Lamboll, Robin

AU - Quéré, Corinne Le

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AU - Rosen, Deborah

AU - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

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N2 - The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

AB - The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

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JF - Nature Climate Change

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Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Abstract

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