Do casualties affect future troop deployment

In the literature, the ‘body bag syndrome’ or ‘casualty hypothesis’ is described as the casualty aversion which decreases public support of participation in military missions (Everts & Isernia, 2001). Although empirical studies do not seem to support the hypothesis (Kull, 1995; Burk, 1999; Everts & Isernia, 2001), it does seem to influence foreign policy decisions (Kull & Destler, 1999). As policymakers believe in the body bag syndrome, they may adapt their foreign policy accordingly, leading to reduced military participation (Feaver & Gelpi, 2004). Our main research question hence is whether policymakers are indeed influenced by the fear of public reaction on casualties. Therefore, we study whether casualties do determine future military deployment. Inspiration for the important variables in this analysis is offered by the literature on the determinants of supply of peacekeeping (Bove & Elia, 2011). Next to these variables (value of labor, proximity of the conflict, …) the main variable of interest is the number of casualties. Data will be collected for all NATO countries for 2006-2010 based on the military balance books (ISS), the SIPRI Multilateral Peace Operations Database, and information from NATO members on deployment and casualties.