Abstract
The present work aims to address the physical properties of different drought types under near-future climates in the Mediterranean. To do so, we use a multi-model mean of the bias-adjusted and downscaled product of five Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—phase6 (CMIP6), provided by Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) for the period 2021–2060, to estimate the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 1-, 6-, and 12-month time scales, and address the meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought, respectively. Additionally, SPEI is calculated from the bias-adjusted CMIP6 historical simulations and the reanalysis ‘WFDE5’ for 1980–2014 as a historical and reference period. The comparison of the CMIP6 with WFDE5 reveals a consistently increasing tendency for drought occurrences in the Mediterranean, particularly for agricultural and hydrological drought time scales. Nonetheless, an overestimation in historical trend magnitude is shown by the CMIP6 with respect to WFDE5. The projection results depict drought frequencies ranging between 12 and 25% of the studied period 2021–2060, varying with regions and climate scenarios. The tendency to increase the drought frequency is more pronounced in the southern than northern Mediterranean countries. Drought severity is remarkable in the aggregated time scales; consequently, more pressure is foreseen in the food and water sectors. Drought seasonality reveals a higher tendency for drought occurrences in summer (autumn) months for the meteorological (agricultural) droughts. The driving factor(s) for drought occurrence strongly depends on regional climate characteristics.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 133 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 7 Sep 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:We acknowledge the Working Group on Coupled Modeling of the World Climate Research Program, which is responsible for the CMIP products. Additionally, we gratefully acknowledge the ISIMIP Project and community (ISIMIP; www.isimip.org ) for their roles in producing bias-adjusted and downscale model data and making them available, from which input data were used to perform the study. We also thank Smart Agriculture based on Meteorological Big Data (ID_43088) supported by STDF, the EQC contract C3S_511_CNR, and C3S2_520_CNR Copernicus Climate Services for their financial support and for sparking the idea that led to this study.
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