Efficacy of climate forcings in transient CMIP6 simulations

Gunnar Myhre; Rachael E. Byrom; Timothy Andrews; Piers M. Forster; Christopher J. Smith

doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1397358

Efficacy of climate forcings in transient CMIP6 simulations

Gunnar Myhre
, Rachael E. Byrom
, Timothy Andrews
, Piers M. Forster
, Christopher J. Smith

Department of Water and Climate

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

2 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

For effective radiative forcing (ERF) to be an ideal metric for comparing the strength of different climate drivers (such as CO₂ and aerosols), the ratio of radiative forcing to global-mean temperature change must be the same for each driver. Typically, this ratio is divided by the same ratio for CO₂ and termed efficacy. Previously it has been shown that efficacy is close to unity in abrupt perturbation experiments for a range of climate drivers, but efficacy with respect to CO₂ has not been investigated in transient realistic simulations. Here, we analyse transient simulations from CMIP6 experiments and show comparable results between transient and abrupt perturbation experiments. We demonstrate that aerosol efficacy is not significantly different from unity, however inter-model differences in aerosol experiments are notably large.

Original language	English
Number of pages	8
Journal	Frontiers in Climate
Volume	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1397358
Publication status	Published - 12 Jun 2024

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The author(s) declare that financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This study was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no 820829 (CONSTRAIN project) and supported by the KeyCLIM project grant no. 295046 funded by the Norwegian Research Council. For PDRMIP parts of the computations were performed on and data has been interchanged shared and stored on resources provided by Sigma2 -the National Infrastructure for High-Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway (project accounts NN9188K and NS9042K).

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2024 Myhre, Byrom, Andrews, Forster and Smith.

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title = "Efficacy of climate forcings in transient CMIP6 simulations",

abstract = "For effective radiative forcing (ERF) to be an ideal metric for comparing the strength of different climate drivers (such as CO2 and aerosols), the ratio of radiative forcing to global-mean temperature change must be the same for each driver. Typically, this ratio is divided by the same ratio for CO2 and termed efficacy. Previously it has been shown that efficacy is close to unity in abrupt perturbation experiments for a range of climate drivers, but efficacy with respect to CO2 has not been investigated in transient realistic simulations. Here, we analyse transient simulations from CMIP6 experiments and show comparable results between transient and abrupt perturbation experiments. We demonstrate that aerosol efficacy is not significantly different from unity, however inter-model differences in aerosol experiments are notably large.",

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note = "Funding Information: The author(s) declare that financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This study was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no 820829 (CONSTRAIN project) and supported by the KeyCLIM project grant no. 295046 funded by the Norwegian Research Council. For PDRMIP parts of the computations were performed on and data has been interchanged shared and stored on resources provided by Sigma2 -the National Infrastructure for High-Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway (project accounts NN9188K and NS9042K). Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2024 Myhre, Byrom, Andrews, Forster and Smith.",

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AU - Byrom, Rachael E.

AU - Andrews, Timothy

AU - Forster, Piers M.

AU - Smith, Christopher J.

N1 - Funding Information: The author(s) declare that financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This study was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no 820829 (CONSTRAIN project) and supported by the KeyCLIM project grant no. 295046 funded by the Norwegian Research Council. For PDRMIP parts of the computations were performed on and data has been interchanged shared and stored on resources provided by Sigma2 -the National Infrastructure for High-Performance Computing and Data Storage in Norway (project accounts NN9188K and NS9042K). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2024 Myhre, Byrom, Andrews, Forster and Smith.

PY - 2024/6/12

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N2 - For effective radiative forcing (ERF) to be an ideal metric for comparing the strength of different climate drivers (such as CO2 and aerosols), the ratio of radiative forcing to global-mean temperature change must be the same for each driver. Typically, this ratio is divided by the same ratio for CO2 and termed efficacy. Previously it has been shown that efficacy is close to unity in abrupt perturbation experiments for a range of climate drivers, but efficacy with respect to CO2 has not been investigated in transient realistic simulations. Here, we analyse transient simulations from CMIP6 experiments and show comparable results between transient and abrupt perturbation experiments. We demonstrate that aerosol efficacy is not significantly different from unity, however inter-model differences in aerosol experiments are notably large.

AB - For effective radiative forcing (ERF) to be an ideal metric for comparing the strength of different climate drivers (such as CO2 and aerosols), the ratio of radiative forcing to global-mean temperature change must be the same for each driver. Typically, this ratio is divided by the same ratio for CO2 and termed efficacy. Previously it has been shown that efficacy is close to unity in abrupt perturbation experiments for a range of climate drivers, but efficacy with respect to CO2 has not been investigated in transient realistic simulations. Here, we analyse transient simulations from CMIP6 experiments and show comparable results between transient and abrupt perturbation experiments. We demonstrate that aerosol efficacy is not significantly different from unity, however inter-model differences in aerosol experiments are notably large.

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VL - 6

JO - Frontiers in Climate

JF - Frontiers in Climate

ER -

Efficacy of climate forcings in transient CMIP6 simulations

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