Electric vehicles: barriers, opportunities and a forecast of the market potential

Nowadays, electric vehicles receive a lot of attention. However, their market breakthrough does not seem evident. This paper presents the results of a large scale data collection (survey with 1,196 respondents), held in Flanders (Belgium). The results include perceptions on the advantages and disadvantages of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the acceptable driving range, the acceptable charging time (both slow and fast), the acceptable maximum speed, the role of the government in the introduction of BEVs and the preferred governmental tools to achieve this goal, and the willingness to pay. Also, the market potential for electric vehicles is forecasted with the use of a choice-based conjoint (CBC) analysis. In 2020, BEVs could reach a market share of around 5% of the newly sold vehicles in Flanders, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) could have a market share of around 7%. In 2030, these figures could increase to respectively 15% and 29%. A sensitivity analysis reveals that, in order to increase the potential for (PH)EVs, the main focus should be on decreasing the purchase costs.