Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

C. J. Smith; G. R. Harris; M. D. Palmer; N. Bellouin; W. Collins; G. Myhre; M. Schulz; J.‐C. Golaz; M. Ringer; T. Storelvmo; P. M. Forster

doi:10.1029/2020JD033622

Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

C. J. Smith, G. R. Harris, M. D. Palmer, N. Bellouin, W. Collins, G. Myhre, M. Schulz, J.‐C. Golaz, M. Ringer, T. Storelvmo, P. M. Forster

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

54 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present-day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near-surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m⁻² relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2-4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m⁻². There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m⁻² decade⁻¹) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).

Original language	English
Article number	e2020JD033622
Number of pages	20
Journal	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Volume	126
Issue number	13
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033622
Publication status	Published - 16 Jul 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors thank Tim Andrews and Adriana Sima for the provision of prototype versions of the HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL and IPSL‐CM6A‐LR model outputs respectively, and Maria Rugenstein and Dirk Olivié for helpful discussions. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Program, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. The authors thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. C. J. Smith. was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). P. M. Forster and G. Myhre were supported by European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN). G. Harris, M. D. Palmer and M. Ringer were supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Center Climate Program (GA01101). W. Collins acknowledges funding received from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 641816 (CRESCENDO). The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE‐AC52‐07NA27344.

Funding Information:
The authors thank Tim Andrews and Adriana Sima for the provision of prototype versions of the HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL and IPSL-CM6A-LR model outputs respectively, and Maria Rugenstein and Dirk Olivi? for helpful discussions. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Program, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. The authors thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. C. J. Smith. was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). P. M. Forster and G. Myhre were supported by European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN). G. Harris, M. D. Palmer and M. Ringer were supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Center Climate Program (GA01101). W. Collins acknowledges funding received from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 641816 (CRESCENDO). The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021. The Authors.

Access to Document

10.1029/2020JD033622

Handle.net

Persistent link

Cite this

@article{6c07d36d3ab0464c9d1580ae9767c568,

title = "Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity",

abstract = "An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present-day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near-surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m−2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2-4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m−2. There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m−2 decade−1) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).",

author = "Smith, {C. J.} and Harris, {G. R.} and Palmer, {M. D.} and N. Bellouin and W. Collins and G. Myhre and M. Schulz and J.‐C. Golaz and M. Ringer and T. Storelvmo and Forster, {P. M.}",

note = "Funding Information: The authors thank Tim Andrews and Adriana Sima for the provision of prototype versions of the HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL and IPSL‐CM6A‐LR model outputs respectively, and Maria Rugenstein and Dirk Olivi{\'e} for helpful discussions. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Program, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. The authors thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. C. J. Smith. was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). P. M. Forster and G. Myhre were supported by European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN). G. Harris, M. D. Palmer and M. Ringer were supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Center Climate Program (GA01101). W. Collins acknowledges funding received from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 641816 (CRESCENDO). The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE‐AC52‐07NA27344. Funding Information: The authors thank Tim Andrews and Adriana Sima for the provision of prototype versions of the HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL and IPSL-CM6A-LR model outputs respectively, and Maria Rugenstein and Dirk Olivi? for helpful discussions. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Program, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. The authors thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. C. J. Smith. was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). P. M. Forster and G. Myhre were supported by European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN). G. Harris, M. D. Palmer and M. Ringer were supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Center Climate Program (GA01101). W. Collins acknowledges funding received from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 641816 (CRESCENDO). The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. The Authors.",

year = "2021",

month = jul,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1029/2020JD033622",

language = "English",

volume = "126",

journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres",

issn = "2169-897X",

publisher = "American Geophysical Union",

number = "13",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

AU - Smith, C. J.

AU - Harris, G. R.

AU - Palmer, M. D.

AU - Bellouin, N.

AU - Collins, W.

AU - Myhre, G.

AU - Schulz, M.

AU - Golaz, J.‐C.

AU - Ringer, M.

AU - Storelvmo, T.

AU - Forster, P. M.

N1 - Funding Information: The authors thank Tim Andrews and Adriana Sima for the provision of prototype versions of the HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL and IPSL‐CM6A‐LR model outputs respectively, and Maria Rugenstein and Dirk Olivié for helpful discussions. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Program, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. The authors thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. C. J. Smith. was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). P. M. Forster and G. Myhre were supported by European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN). G. Harris, M. D. Palmer and M. Ringer were supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Center Climate Program (GA01101). W. Collins acknowledges funding received from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 641816 (CRESCENDO). The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE‐AC52‐07NA27344. Funding Information: The authors thank Tim Andrews and Adriana Sima for the provision of prototype versions of the HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL and IPSL-CM6A-LR model outputs respectively, and Maria Rugenstein and Dirk Olivi? for helpful discussions. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Program, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. The authors thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. C. J. Smith. was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). P. M. Forster and G. Myhre were supported by European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN). G. Harris, M. D. Palmer and M. Ringer were supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Center Climate Program (GA01101). W. Collins acknowledges funding received from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 641816 (CRESCENDO). The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Publisher Copyright: © 2021. The Authors.

PY - 2021/7/16

Y1 - 2021/7/16

N2 - An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present-day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near-surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m−2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2-4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m−2. There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m−2 decade−1) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).

AB - An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present-day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near-surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m−2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2-4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m−2. There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m−2 decade−1) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).

UR - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033622

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85109731972&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2020JD033622

DO - 10.1029/2020JD033622

M3 - Article

SN - 2169-897X

VL - 126

JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

IS - 13

M1 - e2020JD033622

ER -

Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Access to Document

Handle.net

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this