Abstract
The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been developed and implemented, physical modelling capabilities have generally improved, the field of impact attribution has emerged, and assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather and climate events in the lived experience. However, a number of non-trivial challenges still remain that must be addressed by the community to secure further advancement of the field whilst ensuring scientific rigour and the appropriate use of attribution findings by stakeholders and associated applications. As part of a concept series commissioned by the World Climate Research Programme, this article discusses contemporary developments and challenges over six key domains relevant to EEA, and provides recommendations of where focus in the EEA field should be concentrated over the coming decade. These six domains are: (1) observations in the context of EEA; (2) extreme event definitions; (3) statistical methods; (4) physical modelling methods; (5) impact attribution; and (6) communication. Broadly, recommendations call for increased EEA assessments and capacity building, particularly for more vulnerable regions; contemporary guidelines for assessing the suitability of physical climate models; establishing best-practice methodologies for EEA on compound and record-shattering extremes; co-ordinated interdisciplinary engagement to develop scaffolding for impact attribution assessments and their suitability for use in broader applications; and increased and ongoing investment in EEA communication. To address these recommendations requires significant developments in multiple fields that either underpin (e.g., observations and monitoring; climate modelling) or are closely related to (e.g., compound and record-shattering events; climate impacts) EEA, as well as working consistently with experts outside of attribution and climate science more generally. However, if approached with investment, dedication, and coordination, tackling these challenges over the next decade will ensure robust EEA analysis, with tangible benefits to the broader global community.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 1455023 |
| Number of pages | 24 |
| Journal | Frontiers in Climate |
| Volume | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 17 Oct 2024 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:The author(s) declare that financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. SP-K and LA were funded by Australian Research Council Grant No. CE170100023. AK was funded by Australian Research Council Grant No. CE230100012. EB received funding from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) via the Emmy Noether Programme (Grant ID 524780515). CB, EB, JZ, SK, and SP received funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No. 101003469. TS acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (AGS-2300037) and the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NA23OAR4310597). CP acknowledges support from the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling (EESM) Program, Early Career Research Program Award Number DE\u2010SC0021109. WT received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union\u2019s Horizon Framework Research and Innovation Programme (Grant Agreement No. 101076909; \u201CLACRIMA\u201D Project). KL is funded by the Intra-ACP Climate Services and Related Applications (ClimSA) Programme in Africa, an initiative funded by the European Union\u2019s 11th European Development Fund and implemented by the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development through a grant with the African Union Commission as the contracting authority. GH received funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 860100 (iMIRACLI) and from Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Project GloSAT (NE/S015698/1). MW was supported by by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE340AC02-05CH11231 under the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) as part of the CASCADE SFA.
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2024 Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Alexander, King, Kew, Philip, Barnes, Maraun, Stuart-Smith, Jézéquel, Bevacqua, Burgess, Fischer, Hegerl, Kimutai, Koren, Lawal, Min, New, Odoulami, Patricola, Pinto, Ribes, Shaw, Thiery, Trewin, Vautard, Wehner and Zscheischler.