Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: A review

Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Mohamed Elshamy, Ann Van Griensven, Eman Soliman, Max Kigobe, Preksedis Ndomba, Joseph Mutemi, Francis Mutua, Semu Moges, Yunqing Xuan, Dimitri Solomatine, Stefan Uhlenbrook

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

64 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A critical discussion of recent studies that analysed the effects of climate change on the water resources of the River Nile Basin (RNB) is presented. First, current water-related issues on the RNB showing the particular vulnerability to environmental changes of this large territory are described. Second, observed trends in hydrological data (such as temperature, precipitation, river discharge) as described in the recent literature are presented. Third, recent modelling exercises to quantify the effects of climate changes on the RNB are critically analysed. The many sources of uncertainty affecting the entire modelling chain, including climate modelling, spatial and temporal downscaling, hydrological modelling and impact assessment are also discussed. In particular, two contrasting issues are discussed: the need to better recognize and characterize the uncertainty of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the RNB, and the necessity to effectively support decision-makers and propose suitable adaptation strategies and measures. The principles of a code of good practice in climate change impact studies based on the explicit handling of various sources of uncertainty are outlined.

Original languageFrench
Pages (from-to)199-211
Number of pages13
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume56
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2011

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