Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Chantelle Burton; Seppe Lampe; Douglas I. Kelley; Wim Thiery; Stijn Hantson; Nikos Christidis; Lukas Gudmundsson; Matthew Forrest; Eleanor Burke; Jinfeng Chang; Huilin Huang; Akihiko Ito; Sian Kou-Giesbrecht; Gitta Lasslop; Wei Li; Lars Nieradzik; Fang Li; Yang Chen; James Randerson; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Matthias Mengel

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe, Douglas I. Kelley, Wim Thiery, Stijn Hantson, Nikos Christidis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Matthew Forrest, Eleanor Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Huilin Huang, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Gitta Lasslop, Wei Li, Lars Nieradzik, Fang Li, Yang Chen, James Randerson, Christopher P. O. ReyerMatthias Mengel

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1186-1192
Number of pages	6
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	14
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w
Publication status	Published - 21 Oct 2024

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
C.B. was funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) Brazil project which is supported by the Department for Science, Innovation & Technology (DSIT). C.B. and N.C. were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by DSIT. S.L. was supported by a PhD Fundamental Research Grant by Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek\u2014Vlaanderen (11M7723N). Part of the resources and services used in this work were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation\u2014Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government. D.I.K. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council as part of the LTSM2 TerraFIRMA project. H.H. is supported by US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science (Lab Directed Res & Dev (LDRD) 29IN290162:80941). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated for DOE by the Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RLO1830. M.F. used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID 1202. F.L. is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFE0106500). W.L. is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (grant no. 2019YFA0606604). J.C. is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFF0801904). W.T. and M.M. acknowledge funding from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (SPARCCLE). L.N. is supported by the Strategic Research Area \u2018Modelling the regional and global Earth system\u2019, MERGE, funded by the Swedish government and the simulations were enabled by resources provided by LUNARC, The Centre for Scientific and Technical Computing at Lund University. M.M. received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the research projects QUIDIC (01LP1907A) and is based on work from COST Action CA19139 PROCLIAS (process-based models for climate impact attribution across sectors), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). S.H. acknowledges support from the Max Planck Tandem group programme and from Universidad del Rosario within the programme of Fondos de arranque. A.I. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI grant no. JP21H05318. We also thank the ISIMIP core team for making these simulations possible.

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024.

Access to Document

10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

Cite this

Burton, C., Lampe, S., Kelley, D. I., Thiery, W., Hantson, S., Christidis, N., Gudmundsson, L., Forrest, M., Burke, E., Chang, J., Huang, H., Ito, A., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Lasslop, G., Li, W., Nieradzik, L., Li, F., Chen, Y., Randerson, J., ... Mengel, M. (2024). Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change. Nature Climate Change, 14(11), 1186-1192. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

Burton, Chantelle ; Lampe, Seppe ; Kelley, Douglas I. ; Thiery, Wim ; Hantson, Stijn ; Christidis, Nikos ; Gudmundsson, Lukas ; Forrest, Matthew ; Burke, Eleanor ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Huang, Huilin ; Ito, Akihiko ; Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian ; Lasslop, Gitta ; Li, Wei ; Nieradzik, Lars ; Li, Fang ; Chen, Yang ; Randerson, James ; Reyer, Christopher P. O. ; Mengel, Matthias. / Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change. In: Nature Climate Change. 2024 ; Vol. 14, No. 11. pp. 1186-1192.

@article{26a01dc8e58f4e6ca82cfe03f11a6778,

title = "Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change",

abstract = "Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.",

author = "Chantelle Burton and Seppe Lampe and Kelley, {Douglas I.} and Wim Thiery and Stijn Hantson and Nikos Christidis and Lukas Gudmundsson and Matthew Forrest and Eleanor Burke and Jinfeng Chang and Huilin Huang and Akihiko Ito and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht and Gitta Lasslop and Wei Li and Lars Nieradzik and Fang Li and Yang Chen and James Randerson and Reyer, {Christopher P. O.} and Matthias Mengel",

note = "Funding Information: C.B. was funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) Brazil project which is supported by the Department for Science, Innovation & Technology (DSIT). C.B. and N.C. were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by DSIT. S.L. was supported by a PhD Fundamental Research Grant by Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek\u2014Vlaanderen (11M7723N). Part of the resources and services used in this work were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation\u2014Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government. D.I.K. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council as part of the LTSM2 TerraFIRMA project. H.H. is supported by US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science (Lab Directed Res & Dev (LDRD) 29IN290162:80941). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated for DOE by the Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RLO1830. M.F. used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID 1202. F.L. is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFE0106500). W.L. is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (grant no. 2019YFA0606604). J.C. is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFF0801904). W.T. and M.M. acknowledge funding from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (SPARCCLE). L.N. is supported by the Strategic Research Area \u2018Modelling the regional and global Earth system\u2019, MERGE, funded by the Swedish government and the simulations were enabled by resources provided by LUNARC, The Centre for Scientific and Technical Computing at Lund University. M.M. received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the research projects QUIDIC (01LP1907A) and is based on work from COST Action CA19139 PROCLIAS (process-based models for climate impact attribution across sectors), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). S.H. acknowledges support from the Max Planck Tandem group programme and from Universidad del Rosario within the programme of Fondos de arranque. A.I. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI grant no. JP21H05318. We also thank the ISIMIP core team for making these simulations possible. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024.",

year = "2024",

month = oct,

day = "21",

doi = "10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w",

language = "English",

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Burton, C, Lampe, S, Kelley, DI, Thiery, W, Hantson, S, Christidis, N, Gudmundsson, L, Forrest, M, Burke, E, Chang, J, Huang, H, Ito, A, Kou-Giesbrecht, S, Lasslop, G, Li, W, Nieradzik, L, Li, F, Chen, Y, Randerson, J, Reyer, CPO & Mengel, M 2024, 'Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change', Nature Climate Change, vol. 14, no. 11, pp. 1186-1192. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change. / Burton, Chantelle; Lampe, Seppe; Kelley, Douglas I.; Thiery, Wim; Hantson, Stijn; Christidis, Nikos; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Forrest, Matthew; Burke, Eleanor; Chang, Jinfeng; Huang, Huilin; Ito, Akihiko; Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Wei; Nieradzik, Lars; Li, Fang; Chen, Yang; Randerson, James; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Mengel, Matthias.

In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 14, No. 11, 21.10.2024, p. 1186-1192.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

AU - Burton, Chantelle

AU - Lampe, Seppe

AU - Kelley, Douglas I.

AU - Thiery, Wim

AU - Hantson, Stijn

AU - Christidis, Nikos

AU - Gudmundsson, Lukas

AU - Forrest, Matthew

AU - Burke, Eleanor

AU - Chang, Jinfeng

AU - Huang, Huilin

AU - Ito, Akihiko

AU - Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian

AU - Lasslop, Gitta

AU - Li, Wei

AU - Nieradzik, Lars

AU - Li, Fang

AU - Chen, Yang

AU - Randerson, James

AU - Reyer, Christopher P. O.

AU - Mengel, Matthias

N1 - Funding Information: C.B. was funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) Brazil project which is supported by the Department for Science, Innovation & Technology (DSIT). C.B. and N.C. were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by DSIT. S.L. was supported by a PhD Fundamental Research Grant by Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek\u2014Vlaanderen (11M7723N). Part of the resources and services used in this work were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation\u2014Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government. D.I.K. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council as part of the LTSM2 TerraFIRMA project. H.H. is supported by US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science (Lab Directed Res & Dev (LDRD) 29IN290162:80941). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated for DOE by the Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RLO1830. M.F. used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID 1202. F.L. is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFE0106500). W.L. is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (grant no. 2019YFA0606604). J.C. is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFF0801904). W.T. and M.M. acknowledge funding from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (SPARCCLE). L.N. is supported by the Strategic Research Area \u2018Modelling the regional and global Earth system\u2019, MERGE, funded by the Swedish government and the simulations were enabled by resources provided by LUNARC, The Centre for Scientific and Technical Computing at Lund University. M.M. received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the research projects QUIDIC (01LP1907A) and is based on work from COST Action CA19139 PROCLIAS (process-based models for climate impact attribution across sectors), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). S.H. acknowledges support from the Max Planck Tandem group programme and from Universidad del Rosario within the programme of Fondos de arranque. A.I. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI grant no. JP21H05318. We also thank the ISIMIP core team for making these simulations possible. Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024.

PY - 2024/10/21

Y1 - 2024/10/21

N2 - Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

AB - Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

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EP - 1192

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-678X

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Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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Other files and links

FWOTM1152: Detection and attribution of changes in global wildfire activity to anthropogenic drivers using machine learning

Global Burned Area Increasingly Affected by Climate Change

Research Stay UK MetOffice

Is climate change driving an increase in global fires?

The Effect of Climate Change on Global Wildfire Activity

High Performance Computing – FWO/VSC/VUB – Tier2

Cite this

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Access to Document

Other files and links

Projects

FWOTM1152: Detection and attribution of changes in global wildfire activity to anthropogenic drivers using machine learning

Research output

Global Burned Area Increasingly Affected by Climate Change

Activities

Research Stay UK MetOffice

Is climate change driving an increase in global fires?

The Effect of Climate Change on Global Wildfire Activity

Equipment

High Performance Computing – FWO/VSC/VUB – Tier2

Cite this