Heavy Thunder, No Rain: Defense AI in Iran

Iran’s grand strategy revolves around three key pillars: regime’s survival, security, stability (S3). Viewing the United States, and to a lesser extent Israel, as enduring state threats aiming to disrupt S3, Tehran has increasingly prioritized asymmetric tactics in its defense doctrine. This approach aims to deter adversaries’ kinetic and non-kinetic operations while also positioning Iran to attain regional power status. The integration of AI into defense is seen as a force multiplier. Although Iran’s incorporation of AI into its defense capabilities and infrastructure remains in progress and lacks clarity, the regime is extensively focusing on enhancing its missile systems, proxy forces, Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), and naval power with AI technologies. Beyond state deterrence, Iran’s 360-degree defense doctrine places emphasis on safeguarding national critical infrastructure and ensuring domestic stability, both of which have recently been bolstered through AI. The defense infrastructure in Iran operates through a multi-layered approach, predominantly involving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Army, and the Ministry of Defense. Each entity maintains low-profile research and development (R&D) facilities aimed at advancing AI capabilities or integrating AI technologies into existing systems. Given Iran’s practice of denial and deception (D&D) techniques in its defense technology investments, the exact budget allocated for AI remains undisclosed. However, notwithstanding the opacity surrounding defense AI R&D and budgetary allocation, all defense academies currently engage in training students and recruiting researchers in military applications of AI, a testament to Iran’s vision to progressively integrate AI into its arsenals in the future.