Issue saliences and distance selection in spatial coalition formation models:an empirical investigation

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Abstract

We examine the impact of three factors on the ability to predict political coalitions of spatial
coalition formation models: (1) inclusion of issue saliences, (2) choice of distance function and (3) choice
of solution method. Issue saliences quantify the relative importance that parties attribute to different policy
dimensions. The second factor is the distance function that is used to calculate the difference between
two parties' positions. The classical application employs the most commonly used Euclidean distance in
combination with the gravity center as consensus estimate. This is not the case in the consistent distance
application, where the selection can be made between three function: Euclidean, squared Euclidean and
rectangular. This choice also determines the consensus estimate. These first two factors are often neglected
in existing coalition formation models. The three functions in the consistent distance application and the
classical application, each either unweighted or weighted with issue saliences, gives us eight possible combinations
to apply in four solution methods. These solution methods are different criteria by which to rank
potential coalitions and subsequently determine the (set of) optimal coalition(s).
An empirical application including 28 democracies illustrates the impact these factors have on the predictive
power of the spatial coalition formation models. The factor with the most important impact on the
predictive power is the chosen solution method. Overall, the inclusion of issue saliences or the choice of
distance function do not appear to have a significant influence on the predictive power. However, these
factors do have significant interaction effects with the solution methods. For some methods, although not
all, the issue saliences and distance function can have a significant influence on the model's performance.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherUnknown
EditionBUTO Working Paper No. 64
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Keywords

  • Coalition formation

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