Model uncertainty analysis by variance decomposition

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingMeeting abstract (Book)


Errors and uncertainties in hydrological, hydraulic and environmental models are often substantial. In good modelling practice, they are quantified in order to supply decision-makers with important additional information on model limitations and sources of uncertainty. Several uncertainty analysis methods exist, often with various underlying assumptions. One of these methods is based on variance decomposition. The method allows splitting the variance of the total error in the model results (as estimated after comparing model results with observations) in its major contributing uncertainty sources. This is done by propagation of error distributions for rainfall, other inputs and parameters and consideration of "rest" uncertainties as model structural errors for different parts of the model. Correlations and non-linear interactions between different model inputs and parameters have to be addressed carefully, as well as heteroscedasticity and serial dependence of the errors involved. The method has been advanced and applied by the author for modelling of sewer water quantity and quality, river water quality and river flooding.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationXXXII Italian Conference of Hydraulics and Hydraulic Constructions - Special session on "Uncertainty assessment and validation of hydrological, hydraulic and environmental modelling", Palermo, 14-17 September 2010
Publication statusPublished - 2010
EventFinds and Results from the Swedish Cyprus Expedition: A Gender Perspective at the Medelhavsmuseet - Stockholm, Sweden
Duration: 21 Sep 200925 Sep 2009


ConferenceFinds and Results from the Swedish Cyprus Expedition: A Gender Perspective at the Medelhavsmuseet

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