Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Raphaëlle Klitting; Liana E. Kafetzopoulou; Wim Thiery; Gytis Dudas; Sophie Gryseels; Anjali Kotamarthi; Bram Vrancken; Karthik Gangavarapu; Mambu Momoh; John Demby Sandi; Augustine Goba; Foday Alhasan; Donald S. Grant; Sylvanus Okogbenin; Ephraim Ogbaini-Emovo; Robert F. Garry; Allison R. Smither; Mark Zeller; Matthias G. Pauthner; Michelle McGraw; Laura D. Hughes; Sophie Duraffour; Stephan Günther; Marc A. Suchard; Philippe Lemey; Kristian G. Andersen; Simon Dellicour

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3

Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Raphaëlle Klitting, Liana E. Kafetzopoulou, Wim Thiery, Gytis Dudas, Sophie Gryseels, Anjali Kotamarthi, Bram Vrancken, Karthik Gangavarapu, Mambu Momoh, John Demby Sandi, Augustine Goba, Foday Alhasan, Donald S. Grant, Sylvanus Okogbenin, Ephraim Ogbaini-Emovo, Robert F. Garry, Allison R. Smither, Mark Zeller, Matthias G. Pauthner, Michelle McGrawLaura D. Hughes, Sophie Duraffour, Stephan Günther, Marc A. Suchard, Philippe Lemey, Kristian G. Andersen, Simon Dellicour

Department of Water and Climate

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

37 Citations (Scopus)

27 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

Original language	English
Article number	5596
Number of pages	15
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	13
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3
Publication status	Published - 27 Sep 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors thank David Pigott for sharing their environmental suitability predictions for Mastomys natalensis. The work was supported by the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 725422 — ReservoirDOCS (M.A.S., P.L.), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 project MOOD under grant agreement no. 874850 (P.L., S.Dellicour), the Wellcome Trust through project 206298/Z/17/Z—The Artic Network (M.A.S., P.L.), the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under award numbers U01AI151812 (K.G.A.), R01AI153044 (P.L. and M.A.S.), and U19AI135995 (K.G.A). S.Günther acknowledges support by the German Research Foundation (DFG, grants GU883/5-1 and GU883/5-2), and by the German Federal Ministry of Health through the WHO Collaborating Centre for Arboviruses and Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses at the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine (agreement ZMV I1-2517WHO005) and the Global Health Protection Program (GHPP, agreements ZMV I1-2517GHP-704 and ZMVI1-2519GHP704). R.F.G. and D.S.G. acknowledge support from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the Wellcome Trust Foundation, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme. R.F.G. acknowledges support from the NIH (Grants R01AI132223, R01AI132244, U19AI142790, U54CA260581, U54HG007480, and OT2HL158260) and Gilead Sciences. B.V. was supported by a postdoctoral grant (12U7121N) of the Research Foundation—Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek). S.Gryseels was supported by FED-tWIN OMEgA. P.L. acknowledges support from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen ; grant no. G066215N, G0D5117N, and G0B9317N). S.Dellicour acknowledges support from the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS, Belgium; grant no. F.4515.22) and from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen ; grant no. G098321N). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif (CÉCI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant no. 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region.

Funding Information:
The authors thank David Pigott for sharing their environmental suitability predictions for Mastomys natalensis. The work was supported by the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 725422 — ReservoirDOCS (M.A.S., P.L.), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 project MOOD under grant agreement no. 874850 (P.L., S.Dellicour), the Wellcome Trust through project 206298/Z/17/Z—The Artic Network (M.A.S., P.L.), the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under award numbers U01AI151812 (K.G.A.), R01AI153044 (P.L. and M.A.S.), and U19AI135995 (K.G.A). S.Günther acknowledges support by the German Research Foundation (DFG, grants GU883/5-1 and GU883/5-2), and by the German Federal Ministry of Health through the WHO Collaborating Centre for Arboviruses and Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses at the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine (agreement ZMV I1-2517WHO005) and the Global Health Protection Program (GHPP, agreements ZMV I1-2517GHP-704 and ZMVI1-2519GHP704). R.F.G. and D.S.G. acknowledge support from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the Wellcome Trust Foundation, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme. R.F.G. acknowledges support from the NIH (Grants R01AI132223, R01AI132244, U19AI142790, U54CA260581, U54HG007480, and OT2HL158260) and Gilead Sciences. B.V. was supported by a postdoctoral grant (12U7121N) of the Research Foundation—Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek). S.Gryseels was supported by FED-tWIN OMEgA. P.L. acknowledges support from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen; grant no. G066215N, G0D5117N, and G0B9317N). S.Dellicour acknowledges support from the FondsNational de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS, Belgium; grant no. F.4515.22) and from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen; grant no. G098321N). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif (CÉCI), funded by the Fondsde la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant no. 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

Copyright:
Copyright 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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Cite this

Klitting, R., Kafetzopoulou, L. E., Thiery, W., Dudas, G., Gryseels, S., Kotamarthi, A., Vrancken, B., Gangavarapu, K., Momoh, M., Sandi, J. D., Goba, A., Alhasan, F., Grant, D. S., Okogbenin, S., Ogbaini-Emovo, E., Garry, R. F., Smither, A. R., Zeller, M., Pauthner, M. G., ... Dellicour, S. (2022). Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades. Nature Communications, 13(1), [5596]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3

Klitting, Raphaëlle ; Kafetzopoulou, Liana E. ; Thiery, Wim ; Dudas, Gytis ; Gryseels, Sophie ; Kotamarthi, Anjali ; Vrancken, Bram ; Gangavarapu, Karthik ; Momoh, Mambu ; Sandi, John Demby ; Goba, Augustine ; Alhasan, Foday ; Grant, Donald S. ; Okogbenin, Sylvanus ; Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim ; Garry, Robert F. ; Smither, Allison R. ; Zeller, Mark ; Pauthner, Matthias G. ; McGraw, Michelle ; Hughes, Laura D. ; Duraffour, Sophie ; Günther, Stephan ; Suchard, Marc A. ; Lemey, Philippe ; Andersen, Kristian G. ; Dellicour, Simon. / Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades. In: Nature Communications. 2022 ; Vol. 13, No. 1.

@article{50de41ff4fe540afa0cd9e6e395fc57f,

title = "Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades",

abstract = "Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.",

author = "Rapha{\"e}lle Klitting and Kafetzopoulou, {Liana E.} and Wim Thiery and Gytis Dudas and Sophie Gryseels and Anjali Kotamarthi and Bram Vrancken and Karthik Gangavarapu and Mambu Momoh and Sandi, {John Demby} and Augustine Goba and Foday Alhasan and Grant, {Donald S.} and Sylvanus Okogbenin and Ephraim Ogbaini-Emovo and Garry, {Robert F.} and Smither, {Allison R.} and Mark Zeller and Pauthner, {Matthias G.} and Michelle McGraw and Hughes, {Laura D.} and Sophie Duraffour and Stephan G{\"u}nther and Suchard, {Marc A.} and Philippe Lemey and Andersen, {Kristian G.} and Simon Dellicour",

note = "Funding Information: The authors thank David Pigott for sharing their environmental suitability predictions for Mastomys natalensis. The work was supported by the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 725422 — ReservoirDOCS (M.A.S., P.L.), the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 project MOOD under grant agreement no. 874850 (P.L., S.Dellicour), the Wellcome Trust through project 206298/Z/17/Z—The Artic Network (M.A.S., P.L.), the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under award numbers U01AI151812 (K.G.A.), R01AI153044 (P.L. and M.A.S.), and U19AI135995 (K.G.A). S.G{\"u}nther acknowledges support by the German Research Foundation (DFG, grants GU883/5-1 and GU883/5-2), and by the German Federal Ministry of Health through the WHO Collaborating Centre for Arboviruses and Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses at the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine (agreement ZMV I1-2517WHO005) and the Global Health Protection Program (GHPP, agreements ZMV I1-2517GHP-704 and ZMVI1-2519GHP704). R.F.G. and D.S.G. acknowledge support from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the Wellcome Trust Foundation, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme. R.F.G. acknowledges support from the NIH (Grants R01AI132223, R01AI132244, U19AI142790, U54CA260581, U54HG007480, and OT2HL158260) and Gilead Sciences. B.V. was supported by a postdoctoral grant (12U7121N) of the Research Foundation—Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek). S.Gryseels was supported by FED-tWIN OMEgA. P.L. acknowledges support from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen ; grant no. G066215N, G0D5117N, and G0B9317N). S.Dellicour acknowledges support from the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS, Belgium; grant no. F.4515.22) and from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen ; grant no. G098321N). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des {\'E}quipements de Calcul Intensif (C{\'E}CI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant no. 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Funding Information: The authors thank David Pigott for sharing their environmental suitability predictions for Mastomys natalensis. The work was supported by the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 725422 — ReservoirDOCS (M.A.S., P.L.), the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 project MOOD under grant agreement no. 874850 (P.L., S.Dellicour), the Wellcome Trust through project 206298/Z/17/Z—The Artic Network (M.A.S., P.L.), the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under award numbers U01AI151812 (K.G.A.), R01AI153044 (P.L. and M.A.S.), and U19AI135995 (K.G.A). S.G{\"u}nther acknowledges support by the German Research Foundation (DFG, grants GU883/5-1 and GU883/5-2), and by the German Federal Ministry of Health through the WHO Collaborating Centre for Arboviruses and Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses at the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine (agreement ZMV I1-2517WHO005) and the Global Health Protection Program (GHPP, agreements ZMV I1-2517GHP-704 and ZMVI1-2519GHP704). R.F.G. and D.S.G. acknowledge support from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the Wellcome Trust Foundation, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme. R.F.G. acknowledges support from the NIH (Grants R01AI132223, R01AI132244, U19AI142790, U54CA260581, U54HG007480, and OT2HL158260) and Gilead Sciences. B.V. was supported by a postdoctoral grant (12U7121N) of the Research Foundation—Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek). S.Gryseels was supported by FED-tWIN OMEgA. P.L. acknowledges support from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen; grant no. G066215N, G0D5117N, and G0B9317N). S.Dellicour acknowledges support from the FondsNational de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS, Belgium; grant no. F.4515.22) and from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen; grant no. G098321N). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des {\'E}quipements de Calcul Intensif (C{\'E}CI), funded by the Fondsde la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant no. 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

year = "2022",

month = sep,

day = "27",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3",

language = "English",

volume = "13",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "1",

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Klitting, R, Kafetzopoulou, LE, Thiery, W, Dudas, G, Gryseels, S, Kotamarthi, A, Vrancken, B, Gangavarapu, K, Momoh, M, Sandi, JD, Goba, A, Alhasan, F, Grant, DS, Okogbenin, S, Ogbaini-Emovo, E, Garry, RF, Smither, AR, Zeller, M, Pauthner, MG, McGraw, M, Hughes, LD, Duraffour, S, Günther, S, Suchard, MA, Lemey, P, Andersen, KG & Dellicour, S 2022, 'Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades', Nature Communications, vol. 13, no. 1, 5596. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3

Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades. / Klitting, Raphaëlle; Kafetzopoulou, Liana E.; Thiery, Wim; Dudas, Gytis; Gryseels, Sophie; Kotamarthi, Anjali; Vrancken, Bram; Gangavarapu, Karthik; Momoh, Mambu; Sandi, John Demby; Goba, Augustine; Alhasan, Foday; Grant, Donald S.; Okogbenin, Sylvanus; Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim; Garry, Robert F.; Smither, Allison R.; Zeller, Mark; Pauthner, Matthias G.; McGraw, Michelle; Hughes, Laura D.; Duraffour, Sophie; Günther, Stephan; Suchard, Marc A.; Lemey, Philippe; Andersen, Kristian G.; Dellicour, Simon.

In: Nature Communications, Vol. 13, No. 1, 5596, 27.09.2022.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

AU - Klitting, Raphaëlle

AU - Kafetzopoulou, Liana E.

AU - Thiery, Wim

AU - Dudas, Gytis

AU - Gryseels, Sophie

AU - Kotamarthi, Anjali

AU - Vrancken, Bram

AU - Gangavarapu, Karthik

AU - Momoh, Mambu

AU - Sandi, John Demby

AU - Goba, Augustine

AU - Alhasan, Foday

AU - Grant, Donald S.

AU - Okogbenin, Sylvanus

AU - Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim

AU - Garry, Robert F.

AU - Smither, Allison R.

AU - Zeller, Mark

AU - Pauthner, Matthias G.

AU - McGraw, Michelle

AU - Hughes, Laura D.

AU - Duraffour, Sophie

AU - Günther, Stephan

AU - Suchard, Marc A.

AU - Lemey, Philippe

AU - Andersen, Kristian G.

AU - Dellicour, Simon

N1 - Funding Information: The authors thank David Pigott for sharing their environmental suitability predictions for Mastomys natalensis. The work was supported by the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 725422 — ReservoirDOCS (M.A.S., P.L.), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 project MOOD under grant agreement no. 874850 (P.L., S.Dellicour), the Wellcome Trust through project 206298/Z/17/Z—The Artic Network (M.A.S., P.L.), the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under award numbers U01AI151812 (K.G.A.), R01AI153044 (P.L. and M.A.S.), and U19AI135995 (K.G.A). S.Günther acknowledges support by the German Research Foundation (DFG, grants GU883/5-1 and GU883/5-2), and by the German Federal Ministry of Health through the WHO Collaborating Centre for Arboviruses and Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses at the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine (agreement ZMV I1-2517WHO005) and the Global Health Protection Program (GHPP, agreements ZMV I1-2517GHP-704 and ZMVI1-2519GHP704). R.F.G. and D.S.G. acknowledge support from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the Wellcome Trust Foundation, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme. R.F.G. acknowledges support from the NIH (Grants R01AI132223, R01AI132244, U19AI142790, U54CA260581, U54HG007480, and OT2HL158260) and Gilead Sciences. B.V. was supported by a postdoctoral grant (12U7121N) of the Research Foundation—Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek). S.Gryseels was supported by FED-tWIN OMEgA. P.L. acknowledges support from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen ; grant no. G066215N, G0D5117N, and G0B9317N). S.Dellicour acknowledges support from the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS, Belgium; grant no. F.4515.22) and from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen ; grant no. G098321N). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif (CÉCI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant no. 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Funding Information: The authors thank David Pigott for sharing their environmental suitability predictions for Mastomys natalensis. The work was supported by the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 725422 — ReservoirDOCS (M.A.S., P.L.), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 project MOOD under grant agreement no. 874850 (P.L., S.Dellicour), the Wellcome Trust through project 206298/Z/17/Z—The Artic Network (M.A.S., P.L.), the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under award numbers U01AI151812 (K.G.A.), R01AI153044 (P.L. and M.A.S.), and U19AI135995 (K.G.A). S.Günther acknowledges support by the German Research Foundation (DFG, grants GU883/5-1 and GU883/5-2), and by the German Federal Ministry of Health through the WHO Collaborating Centre for Arboviruses and Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses at the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine (agreement ZMV I1-2517WHO005) and the Global Health Protection Program (GHPP, agreements ZMV I1-2517GHP-704 and ZMVI1-2519GHP704). R.F.G. and D.S.G. acknowledge support from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the Wellcome Trust Foundation, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme. R.F.G. acknowledges support from the NIH (Grants R01AI132223, R01AI132244, U19AI142790, U54CA260581, U54HG007480, and OT2HL158260) and Gilead Sciences. B.V. was supported by a postdoctoral grant (12U7121N) of the Research Foundation—Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek). S.Gryseels was supported by FED-tWIN OMEgA. P.L. acknowledges support from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen; grant no. G066215N, G0D5117N, and G0B9317N). S.Dellicour acknowledges support from the FondsNational de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS, Belgium; grant no. F.4515.22) and from the Research Foundation — Flanders (Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek — Vlaanderen; grant no. G098321N). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif (CÉCI), funded by the Fondsde la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under Grant no. 2.5020.11 and by the Walloon Region. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2022/9/27

Y1 - 2022/9/27

N2 - Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

AB - Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3

DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3

M3 - Article

VL - 13

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

IS - 1

M1 - 5596

ER -

Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

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