Turkish public policies during and after conflicts in Syria and its implications for the refugee flow to Europe

In the last couple of years, developments in Syria have added an extra layer to the already complicated relationship between the EU and Turkey. Cooperation and discord have mainly been on two key issues: the refugee crisis and the threat of terrorism which is associated with the phenomenon of European foreign fighters. Accordingly, most of the current academic and non-academic research output has been on the problems, opportunities and policy proposals concerning these two priorities. Turkey’s repositioning in Syria, its military action in the northern part of this country and its stance on the future of Syria are not clearly understood in the West. This precludes the formation of an accurate view on the potential challenges associated with further refugee flows to the European countries. Moreover, it also hinders the development of a coherent Turkey policy within the EU.
This paper aims at identifying opportunities and constraints for EU-Turkey cooperation in Syria focusing on the Turkish sphere of influence in northern Syria. Here, a distinction will be made between the Turkish policies regarding the West of the Euphrates (the Idlib region and the Turkish controlled areas between Jarablus, Azaz and Al Bab) and the East of the Euphrates which Turkey conducted its latest offensive in October 2019. The goal is:
• To examine Turkey’s foreign policy objectives in both areas,
• To explore potential future scenarios based on the developments on the ground,
• To evaluate Turkish administrative structure that is present in several Syrian border towns,
• To assess Turkish plans and ambitions to resettle Syrian refugees in northern Syria,
• To reflect on the position of other key stakeholders such as the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian regime,
• And to identify policy alternatives for the EU.
Initial findings indicate that Turkey seeks long-term presence in northern Syria without any concrete plan in the resettlement of Syrian refugees. Weaponization of refugees by the Turkish government will likely continue as last witnessed before the outbreak of the Corona pandemic in early 2020. The EU will likely remain to be stuck “between a rock and a hard place” which necessitates a better grasp of Turkish policy objectives in its 822 km. long Syrian border.