Uncertainty, System Structure, and the Security Dilemma: Exploring the Structure-Uncertainty Nexus

Waltz’s structural realism remains a mainstay in IR – be it a controversial one. While advocates see a parsimonious theory that explains the fundamentals of international politics, critics stress its limitations and propose additional hypotheses or alternative approaches. However, as the present analysis shows, both sides underspecify the role of system structure (i.e., anarchy and the distribution of power) and related uncertainty about intentions. To better understand this puzzle, we develop a theory that explains the interplay between system structure, uncertainty, and the security dilemma. First, we investigate how the type of uncertainty – i.e., the degree of uncertainty about states’ intentions to use force and the time horizon over which the uncertainty extends – impacts how structure affects its units’ behavior in the security realm. Second, we explore to what extent the distribution of power affects the type of uncertainty under which great powers operate. Combining these insights results in a theory providing a deeper understanding of how the system structure impacts the security dynamic under anarchy.