What about elite manipulation in deliberative mini-publics? Examining threats and resilience in the Ostbelgien model

Deliberative mini-publics are increasingly embraced by policymakers, marking their integration into the mainstream of contemporary democracy. However, their rising importance also makes them more attractive targets for elite capture. Surprisingly, existing scholarship has mostly neglected the threat of elite capture to deliberative mini-publics. This article fills this gap by proposing a framework to examine capture during the input, throughput, and output phases of mini-publics. The framework is consequently applied to a pioneering case: the Permanenter Bürgerdialog (PBD) in the German-speaking Community of Belgium. The PBD is a randomly selected assembly collaborating with the regional parliament on a permanent basis, rendering it an attractive target for elite capture. Drawing on original interview data, a qualitative analysis examining threats and resilience in the PBD yields three main findings. First, due to its complex procedures, there is considerable leeway for capture in the PBD. Second, the PBD is barely covered in the media, which renders its more vulnerable for elite capture. Finally, the PBD demonstrates how checks and balances through a separation of powers can significantly mitigate capture threats.