TY - JOUR
T1 - 21st Century Scenario Forcing Increases More for CMIP6 Than CMIP5 Models
AU - Fredriksen, Hege‐Beate
AU - Smith, Christopher J.
AU - Modak, Angshuman
AU - Rugenstein, Maria
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank the participants in the Tri-MIPathlon-3 discussion, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. C.S. was supported by a NERC-IIASA collaborative research fellowship (NE/T009381/1). A.M. received funding from the European Research Council Grant 770765. M.R. was further funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant 80NSSC21K1042. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF.
Funding Information:
We thank the participants in the Tri‐MIPathlon‐3 discussion, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. C.S. was supported by a NERC‐IIASA collaborative research fellowship (NE/T009381/1). A.M. received funding from the European Research Council Grant 770765. M.R. was further funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant 80NSSC21K1042. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors.
PY - 2023/3/28
Y1 - 2023/3/28
N2 - Although the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) protocol provides an experiment to estimate effective radiative forcing (ERF), it is only quantified for few models. We present new estimates of ERF for models participating in CMIP6 by applying the method developed in Fredriksen et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034145), and validate our approach with available fixed-SST forcing estimates. We estimate ERF for experiments with abrupt changes of CO2, 1% increase of CO2, historical forcings, and future scenarios, and demonstrate that CMIP6 ERF is lower than CMIP5 ERF at the end of the historical period, but grows faster than CMIP5 in the future scenarios, ending up at higher levels than CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century. The simulated radiative efficiency of CO2 has not changed much, suggesting that the larger future increase in CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is important for explaining the forcing difference.
AB - Although the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) protocol provides an experiment to estimate effective radiative forcing (ERF), it is only quantified for few models. We present new estimates of ERF for models participating in CMIP6 by applying the method developed in Fredriksen et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034145), and validate our approach with available fixed-SST forcing estimates. We estimate ERF for experiments with abrupt changes of CO2, 1% increase of CO2, historical forcings, and future scenarios, and demonstrate that CMIP6 ERF is lower than CMIP5 ERF at the end of the historical period, but grows faster than CMIP5 in the future scenarios, ending up at higher levels than CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century. The simulated radiative efficiency of CO2 has not changed much, suggesting that the larger future increase in CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is important for explaining the forcing difference.
UR - https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102916
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85152581822&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2023GL102916
DO - 10.1029/2023GL102916
M3 - Article
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 50
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 6
M1 - e2023GL102916
ER -