Are performances at young age a good predictor of later success? Case study 8.2

An important change in the career of an athlete concerns the transition from junior to senior competition. Many have the potential to become an elite athlete, but only a few attain this high-level and can sustain it. Several factors influence the acquisition of high-level performance (Martindale, Collins, & Daubney, 2005). Research suggests that athlete performance potential in the long-term is neither readily nor accurately assessed (Abbott & Collins, 2002) (Howe, Davidson, & Sloboda, 1998). Although not much is known about the extent to which performances at young ages are a good indicator for later success these are frequently taken as a criterion for talent identification (Brouwers, De Bosscher, Schaillée, Truyens, & Sotiriadou, 2010). This case study is concerned with a project that was conducted in Flanders in order to develop a youth performance sports index (YPSI). This YPSI aimed to enable us to detect a critical moment at which athletes must start to perform during international (youth) competitions. Besides, it should enable the evaluation of performances of young top athletes during several years with regard to their potential to become a world-class athlete.

The preliminary research consists of a European analysis of four sports: judo, tennis, gymnastics and athletics. This case study uses a top down approach to collect data, to answer the question: how did good performing senior elite athletes perform during youth tournaments? The sport specific principles of the YPSI (tournaments, see table 2), were chosen in consultation with representatives of the Flemish Sport Federations. The purpose of this contribution is twofold. We will shortly focus first on correlations between performances on youth tournaments and professional level. Second, we will shed light on how elite athletes performed in the selected youth tournaments (top down approach).