Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia

Shan Zou, Jilili Abuduwaili, Weili Duan, Jianli Ding, Philippe De Maeyer, Tim Van De Voorde, Long Ma

Onderzoeksoutput: Articlepeer review

11 Citaten (Scopus)

Samenvatting

Extreme precipitation events exhibit an increasing trend for both the frequency and magnitude on global and regional scales and it has already proven the impact of man-made global warming on the extreme precipitation amplification. Based on the observed datasets and global climate model (GCM) output, this study has evaluated the impact from anthropogenic forcing on the trend and temporal non-uniformity (i.e. increase in unevenness or disparity) of the precipitation amounts (PRCPTOT), extremes (R95p and RX5day) and intensity (SDII) in Central Asia (CA) from 1961 to 2005. Results indicate that radiative forcing changes, mainly driven by human activities, have significantly augmented the extreme precipitation indices in CA. The median trend with the influence of anthropogenic activities for the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day amounted to 2.19 mm/decade, 0.019 mm/decade, 1.39 mm/decade and 0.21 mm/decade during the study period, respectively. A statistically insignificant decrease in non-uniformity was noticed for the PRCPTOT, SDII and RX5day in Central CA (CCA) and Western CA (WCA), while Eastern CA (ECA) was the only region with a statistically significant increase in non-uniformity of the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day by 4.22%, 3.98%, 3.73% and 3.97%, respectively from 1961 to 2005 due to anthropogenic forcing. These results reflect the difference in various regions regarding the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in CA, which might help to fully understand the role of anthropogenic forcing in the changes of the precipitation extremes in CA and contribute to the development of water resource management strategies.

Originele taal-2English
Artikelnummer15032
Aantal pagina's11
TijdschriftScientific Reports
Volume11
Nummer van het tijdschrift1
DOI's
StatusPublished - 22 jul 2021

Bibliografische nota

© 2021. The Author(s).

Vingerafdruk

Duik in de onderzoeksthema's van 'Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia'. Samen vormen ze een unieke vingerafdruk.

Citeer dit