Dispersal limits poleward expansion of mangroves on the west coast of North America

While much attention has been paid to the climatic controls of species' range limits, other factors such as dispersal limitation are also important. Temperature is an important control of the distribution of coastal mangrove forests, and mangrove expansion at multiple poleward range limits has been linked to increasing temperatures. However, mangrove abundances at other poleward range limits have been surprisingly insensitive to climate change, indicating other drivers of range limitation. For example, along the west coast of North America, the poleward mangrove range limits are found on the Baja California and mainland coasts of Mexico, between 26°48ʹ and 30°18ʹN. Non-climatic factors may play an important role in setting these range limits as 1) the abundance of range limit populations has been relatively insensitive to climate variability and 2) an introduced population of mangroves has persisted hundreds of kilometers north of the natural range limits. We combined a species distribution model with a high-resolution oceanographic transport model to identify the roles of climate and dispersal limitation in controlling mangrove distributions. We identified estuarine habitat that is likely climatically suitable for mangroves north of the current range limits. However, propagules from current mangrove populations are unlikely to reach these suitable locations due to prevailing ocean currents and geomorphic factors that create a patchy distribution of estuarine habitat with large between-patch distances. Thus, although climate change is driving range shifts of mangroves in multiple regions around the world, dispersal is currently limiting poleward mangrove expansion at several range limits, including the west coast of North America.