Exploratory scenario planning in transport: a review of applications in Western Europe

Exploratory scenario planning is increasingly used to address fundamental uncertainties in policymaking. Its potential is particularly high in transport planning, characterised by heavy investments and distant time horizons. However, little research has been done to understand its practical applications in transport policymaking. Past applications of exploratory scenarios can provide valuable insights regarding the uptake of scenario planning methodologies. We, therefore, analyse how exploratory scenarios for transport planning are developed, examining both the content and the methods of scenario planning applications in six West European countries. The results show that trend-based methods of scenario building are most used. We also see that in terms of uncertainty, social factors are considered most often. Surprisingly, we find that few scenarios were developed in a participatory manner. Our results indicate a limited uptake of scenario planning in transport policy, and that current scenario planning applications are conservative in terms of creativity and participation.