TY - JOUR
T1 - Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing
AU - Watson-Parris, Duncan
AU - Smith, Christopher J.
N1 - Funding Information:
D.W.-P. acknowledge s funding from the Natural Environment Research Council project NE/S005390/1 (ACRUISE) and from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme iMIRACLI under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 860100. C.J.S. was supported by a NERC/IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship (NE/T009381/1). We thank P. Forster, P. Stier, S. Jenkins and A. Williams for useful feedback and discussions while preparing this manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Despite a concerted research effort and extensive observational record, uncertainty in climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, the two largest contributions to future warming uncertainty, remains large. Here we highlight the stark disparity that different aerosol forcing can imply for future warming projections: scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement can either easily meet the specified warming limits or risk missing them completely using plausible samples from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assessed uncertainty ranges.
AB - Despite a concerted research effort and extensive observational record, uncertainty in climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, the two largest contributions to future warming uncertainty, remains large. Here we highlight the stark disparity that different aerosol forcing can imply for future warming projections: scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement can either easily meet the specified warming limits or risk missing them completely using plausible samples from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assessed uncertainty ranges.
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01516-0
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85142004844&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-022-01516-0
DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01516-0
M3 - Article
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 12
SP - 1111
EP - 1113
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 12
ER -