Modelling transitions in sealed surface cover fraction with Quantitative State Cellular Automata

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Samenvatting

Cellular Automata (CA) applications simulating urban processes generally employ discrete land-use classes to characterise the physical environment. Yet there is an increasing demand for urban land cover models simulating quantitative change at the sub-cell level. The proposed Quantitative State Cellular Automata model (QCA) addresses this issue by relaxing part of the CA definition and considering real-valued quantitative cell states reflecting a physically meaningful measure. QCA entails two components of change: transition potential and quantity of change. The potential component addresses the likelihood of any change occurring in a cell, whereas the quantity component estimates the magnitude of change. The QCA concept is illustrated for Sealed Surface Density (SSD) transitions in Brussels and part of Flanders (Belgium). A Mutual Information (MI) approach is used to define the neighbourhood interaction framework. The QCA model is respectively calibrated and validated using Landsat-derived 1987–2001 and 2001–2013 SSD change on 30 m resolution. The results show that QCA successfully emulates spatial patterns of urban development, and significantly outperforms a random model in terms of quantitative and spatial distribution of SSD change. Further improvements can be achieved by explicitly integrating socio-economic information in the proposed workflow.
Originele taal-2English
Artikelnummer104081
Pagina's (van-tot)1-12
Aantal pagina's12
TijdschriftLandscape and Urban Planning
Volume211
DOI's
StatusPublished - jul 2021

Bibliografische nota

Funding Information:
The research presented in this paper is funded by BELSPO (Belgian Science Policy Office) in the frame of the STEREO III programme – project URBANEARS (SR/00/307).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors

Copyright:
Copyright 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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