Narratives and Interests: the EU’s Position on Taiwan Before and After the War on Ukraine

This Policy Brief examines the evolving perception and discourse of the European Union (EU) regarding Taiwan, particularly in light of the EU's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Brief analyses the factors that have contributed to a shift in Europe's stance on Taiwan, including deteriorating EU-China relations and the ripple effects of the Ukraine conflict. It highlights the EU's cautious and pragmatic approach to China, maintaining its "One China" policy while increasingly recognising Taiwan's geoeconomic and strategic importance. The Brief discusses the EU's narrative based on economic and value-based interests. It explores the implications of this evolving stance, including its potential inconsistencies and challenges, and discusses its implications for any EU role in a Taiwan contingency. Finally, the Brief suggests that the EU should focus on preventing a crisis and reinforcing its strategic signalling to China, while coordinating its response with like-minded partners in the international community.