New shopping malls and the modal split fallacy in Belgium

abstract
The rationale of this study stems from the controversy on the planned development of three major shopping malls in Belgium. As new regional shopping centres necessarily look to compete with each other, as well as with existing smaller-scaled retail amenities, figures on characteristics and effects of such projects become easily the subject of political debate. Our study provides an alternative approach for the simulations that were provided by the macroscopic traffic model of the Flemish government, while focusing on the specific aspect of the mode choice of the customers. Our hypothesis is that destination-based variables such as location and accessibility of shopping centres influence the travel mode choice of the visitors. Based on an analysis of the modal split of the customers of seventeen existing shopping centres in Belgium, we develop a model for a more sustainable siting policy of shopping centres. Relying on both explorative and explanatory statistical data analysis we seek factors that significantly contribute to insights in the visitors' modal choice. The results show a major influence of the location of the shopping centre in relation to the urban form. For example, shopping centres that are part of a dense urban fabric, measured by means of the population density in the range of one kilometre, travel less often by car. The size of the shopping centre plays a role as well. Smaller sites will attract more cyclists and pedestrians. Interestingly, our results deviate significantly from the figures that have been put forward in public debates on the shopping mall issuein Belgium.