Stakeholders’ preferences for the future of transport in Europe: Participatory evaluation of scenarios combining scenario planning and the multi-actor multi-criteria analysis

Developing a vision for transport and mobility requires the consideration of several alternative scenarios and a selection of preferred futures based on a consensus of stakeholders. In this paper, we propose a methodology that combines scenario analysis (intuitive logics method), multi-actor multi-criteria analysis and visioning to develop normative scenarios, appraise stakeholders’ preferences towards them and develop a common vision. The methodology includes participatory elements (workshops and surveys) to foster creativity, build consensus and contribute to social learning. The novelty is that the stakeholders’ preferences towards the scenarios are explicitly evaluated based on their distinct set of objectives highlighting the synergies and conflicts towards future scenarios. The methodology is demonstrated by developing and evaluating four scenarios and creating a common vision for transport and mobility in Europe for 2030. The four scenarios were developed through a series of workshops and surveys. Then the preferences of 214 stakeholders in 14 stakeholder groups were appraised towards these scenarios to select the most desired ones. The selected scenarios (Digital nomads and Minimum carbon) were then integrated into a common vision. Our results show that such an approach can lead to a consensual and desired future pathway supported by a wide range of stakeholders.