@article{5ed75a715d124805a5f5d89efa0a3ce4,
title = "The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change",
abstract = "Abstract. Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections.",
author = "Kopp, {Robert E.} and Garner, {Gregory G.} and Tim Hermans and Shantenu Jha and Praveen Kumar and Alexander Reedy and Aimee Slangen and Matteo Turilli and Tamsin Edwards and Jonathan Gregory and George Koubbe and Anders Levermann and Andre Merzky and Sophie Nowicki and Palmer, {Matthew D.} and Christopher Smith",
note = "Funding Information: This research has been supported by the National Science Foundation (grant nos. ICER-1663807 and ICER-2103754, the latter as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant nos. 80NSSC17K0698, 80NSSC20K1724, and 80NSSC21K0322, as well as JPL task no. 105393.509496.02.08.13.31), the Natural Environment Research Council (grant nos. NE/T009381/1, NE/T007443/1, and NE/T009381/1), Horizon 2020 (grant no. 869304), and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (grant no. RTVU1705). Funding Information: Gregory G. Garner and Robert E. Kopp were supported by grants from the National Science Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Robert E. Kopp was also supported by a grant from the Rhodium Group (for whom he previously worked as a consultant) as part of the Climate Impact Lab consortium. T Aim{\'e}e B. A. Slangen and Tim H. J. Hermans were supported by the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research. Aim{\'e}e B. A. Slangen, Tim H. J. Hermans, and Tamsin L. Edwards were supported by PROTECT, which has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (this is PROTECT contribution number 78). This project was also supported by the NZ SeaRise Programme funded by a New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment contract with the Research Trust at Victoria University. Matthew D. Palmer was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by DSIT. Chris Smith was supported by a NERC/IIASA collaborative research fellowship. We thank Kelly McCusker for assistance coupling FaIR into FACTS. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Copyright: ",
year = "2023",
month = dec,
day = "21",
doi = "10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
pages = "7461–7489",
journal = "Geoscientific Model Development",
issn = "1991-959X",
publisher = "Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH",
number = "24",
}