To go or not to go: travellers’ responses to a national general strike in Flanders, Belgium

Disruptions in public transport may have a significant impact on the travel behaviour of passengers especially for those who have no access to other modes of transport. In this paper, we investigate the impact of a one-day preannounced national general strike in Belgium on the travel behaviour of residents of the Flanders region. Our aim was to detect potential changes in terms of modal choice, timing of journeys, cancellation of journeys and adaptation of routes and activities. As opposed to previous studies, this strike affected not only the transport sector but also some key sectors of the economy with potential additional impact on travel behaviour. Another novelty is that very detailed information was collected about the travel behaviour of respondents through an on-line, time-use diary, which gives information about the context of travel and activities that may have replaced travel.
A national strike was announced by the three main trade unions for 15 December 2014 affecting all economic sectors in Belgium. Public and social services were very limited: public transport was mostly non-operational, the airport and harbours were closed, many shops and schools were closed. The research was carried out with the Modular Online Time Use Survey (MOTUS). The survey consisted of a pre-survey, a diary for the day of the strike and for a normal working day and a post-questionnaire. 2957 persons were approached by e-mail to participate. 426 persons started the survey (14.4 % response rate for the pre-questionnaire) and 242 filled in all parts of it (8.1%).
The initial analysis shows that public transport users were most affected by the strike since public transport services were severely disrupted. In terms of expectations of transport disturbances on the strike day almost half of the respondents (45.4%) did not expect any disturbances. 22% expected more road congestion, and 16.6% severe disruptions in public transport. Within the group of respondents who normally travel by car on Mondays, 41.6% expected no disturbance while a similar proportion, 36.7% assumed more congestion. In order to compensate for the expected longer journey times 26.5% of the respondents planned to leave earlier than normally. Although car drivers anticipated road congestion, it did not occur, probably due to the significant reduction of commuting traffic as only about 60% of the employees went to work to their usual workplace and many public services were closed. 11% of the employees worked from home which indicates the potential of teleworking for congestion reduction.
In the next stage of the research the anticipation of the respondents concerning their behaviour during the strike will be compared to actual diary data for the day of the strike. This way the stated and revealed preferences of travellers will be compared. Then diary data for the strike day and a regular working day (Thursday) will be compared to carry out a more detailed analysis of actual travel behaviour responses to the strike.