TY - JOUR
T1 - Why Drones Have Not Revolutionized War The Enduring Hider-Finder Competition in Air Warfare
AU - Calcara, Antonio
AU - Gilli, Andrea
AU - Gilli, Mauro
AU - Marchetti, Raffaele
AU - Zaccagnini, Ivan
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors are listed in alphabetical order to reºect their equal contributions to this article. They would like to acknowledge the ªnancial support of the Policy Planning Unit of the Department for Public and Cultural Diplomacy of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The opinions expressed in this article do not represent those of NATO, the NATO Defense College, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, or any other organization with which the authors are or have been afªliated. The authors thank Chris Bassler, Heiko Borchert, Gianmarco Di Loreto, Michael Horowitz, Jesse Humpal, Alexander Lanoszka, Jon Lindsay, Niklas Masuhr, Lennart Maschmeyer, Nina Silove, Max Smeets, and the anonymous reviewers for extensive feedback and suggestions. Additional bibliographic and explanatory material is in the online appendix, available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/BCC6IV.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
PY - 2022/4/1
Y1 - 2022/4/1
N2 - According to the accepted wisdom in security studies, unmanned aerial vehicles, also known as drones, have revolutionizing effects on war and world politics. Drones allegedly tilt the military balance in favor of the offense, reduce existing asymmetries in military power between major and minor actors, and eliminate close combat from modern battlefields. A new theory about the hider-finder competition between air penetration and air defense shows that drones are vulnerable to air defenses and electronic warfare systems, and that they require support from other force structure assets to be effective. This competition imposes high costs on those who fail to master the set of tactics, techniques, procedures, technologies, and capabilities necessary to limit exposure to enemy fire and to detect enemy targets. Three conflicts that featured extensive employment of drones—the Western Libya military campaign of the second Libyan civil war (2019–2020), the Syrian civil war (2011–2021), and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (2020)—probe the mechanisms of the theory. Drones do not by themselves produce the revolutionary effects that many have attributed to them.
AB - According to the accepted wisdom in security studies, unmanned aerial vehicles, also known as drones, have revolutionizing effects on war and world politics. Drones allegedly tilt the military balance in favor of the offense, reduce existing asymmetries in military power between major and minor actors, and eliminate close combat from modern battlefields. A new theory about the hider-finder competition between air penetration and air defense shows that drones are vulnerable to air defenses and electronic warfare systems, and that they require support from other force structure assets to be effective. This competition imposes high costs on those who fail to master the set of tactics, techniques, procedures, technologies, and capabilities necessary to limit exposure to enemy fire and to detect enemy targets. Three conflicts that featured extensive employment of drones—the Western Libya military campaign of the second Libyan civil war (2019–2020), the Syrian civil war (2011–2021), and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (2020)—probe the mechanisms of the theory. Drones do not by themselves produce the revolutionary effects that many have attributed to them.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85131803678&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1162/isec_a_00431
DO - 10.1162/isec_a_00431
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85131803678
VL - 46
SP - 130
EP - 171
JO - International Security
JF - International Security
SN - 0162-2889
IS - 4
ER -